Investor Insights
Emerging Markets and the US Dollar: What the Decline Means for EM Fixed Income
The decline in the Dollar versus Emerging Markets (EM) currencies began two years ago with more room to run, in our view. The unwinding of QE policies in the coming years will continue to weigh on the Dollar, and EM stands to benefit as capital inflows to EM ease important financial constraints. This should unleash stronger domestic demand and eventually more rate hikes than the Fed will deliver.
8 Feb 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and capped off a week of softness. We felt that more and more EM policymakers were getting uncomfortable with FX strength and are likely welcome this recent weakening. However, that’s only if their stock and bond markets hold up, which they are (for now). Friday was clearly the dollar’s day to shine. What’s more important is how the markets trade Monday. Do they…
5 Feb 2018
Globalising Sukuk: Diversifying Investment with Price-Competitive, Ethical Assets
Sukuk – sharia-compliant bonds – may have risen to prominence in majority-Muslim countries over the past two decades, but their appeal has clearly gained momentum among a diverse group of stakeholders – and for good reason. These instruments offer borrowers ethical, price-competitive ways of diversifying their investments and raising new capital - just some of the reasons why global sukuk…
1 Feb 2018
The Spectre of Communism Haunts Vietnam’s Credit Market Despite Solid Growth
Vietnam has become one of the most stable and high-performing economies in Asia over the past decade, providing a cheaper alternative for global production and manufacturing giants to the resurgent China. As the country looks to develop and further open its capital markets, unsustainable credit growth and the burden of funding the Party machine could bring a dark twist to this tale of prosperity.
26 Jan 2018
Sunny Outlook for Egypt’s Renewables as DFIs Make Way for Commercial Banks
The first two stages of the Egyptian government’s solar and wind programme have been somewhat hit-and-miss, but increased development bank involvement sets the next stage on a path to encourage wider private sector participation. Third time’s a charm – but only if local and commercial lenders play their part, analysts suggest.
23 Jan 2018
Paraguay is the new Star in the Mercosur
I have covered Paraguay since 2004, when I was working for Merrill Lynch. At that time, to open a relationship in Paraguay and get all approvals from compliance was a nightmare. The ROI was amazing, but the headache given by the account was three times greater than any other country in the region, too. Since 2003, however, Paraguay changed a lot.
22 Jan 2018
2018 Outlook for Emerging and Frontier Markets
2017 has been an amazingly profitable year for investors in emerging and frontier markets. As uncertainty takes hold, driven by a hawkish Fed outlook and China's slowdown, Mark Mobius, the outgoing Chairman of Franklin Templeton's Emerging Market Group, takes a parting shot at predicting what the coming year has in store for the markets.
12 Jan 2018
Colombia: A New State of Play
The administration of President Juan Manuel Santos is entering its final stretch with presidential elections next year, prompting Colombia Gold Letter to take the pulse of sentiment in the mining and exploration sector on several key issues.
13 Dec 2017
How African Microfinance Lenders Can Gain Access to Capital Markets
Microfinancing institutions (MFIs) have for years played a key part in driving growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. As investment needs and businesses grow, finding and establishing new channels of funding is becoming a top priority for MFIs – and the debt capital markets could be the answer.
11 Dec 2017
Off The Record: The Top 5 Emerging Market Credit Trends in 2018
It has been a stellar year for emerging market credit, with most of the key benchmark indices outperforming and EM fundamentals broadly improving – while the global economy continues to heat up. But with QE – one of the main forces driving yield-hungry investors into EMs – winding down, a slew of EM elections on the horizon, and uncertainty over the direction of large developed economies like the…
7 Dec 2017