The decline in the Dollar versus Emerging Markets (EM) currencies began two years ago with more room to run, in our view. The unwinding of QE policies in the coming years will continue to weigh on the Dollar, and EM stands to benefit as capital inflows to EM ease important financial constraints. This should unleash stronger domestic demand and eventually more rate hikes than the Fed will deliver.
Chinese bonds tend to perform better than other EM local currency bonds during bouts of risk aversion, making them – perhaps in spite of, not despite, fears over the spread of coronavirus – a de facto safe haven, argues Ashmore's EM bond guru Jan Dehn.
Mar 5, 2020
Global growth is decelerating. Policy-makers in developed economies are gearing up for yet more fiscal spending. While fiscal spending may support growth for a short time, and for longer if very carefully applied, it will not change the growth outlook fundamentally. This is because the main reason for slower growth lies elsewhere, namely in gross misallocation of capital on a global scale,…
Jan 10, 2020
With the volume of negative-yielding developed market assets shooting past the USD15tn mark, inflation globally on the wane and downside risks for the Dollar rising, returns for EM fixed income investors are looking to be as strong as ever, argue Ashmore's Jan Dehn and Gustavo Medeiros.
Oct 31, 2019
Donald Trump’s willingness to replace long-term global political planning in favour of short-term political opportunism marks a departure from 70-odd years of US foreign policy. In a nutshell, after a long line of US presidents worked hard to build global political capital and the Trump Administration has now decided to spend it. What does this mean for investors and policy makers in other…
Jul 9, 2019