Investor Insights
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX came under renewed pressure last week as US yields rose to new highs for the cycle. RUB and TRY were the top performers last week, while MXN and COP were the worst. There are no Fed speakers this week due to the embargo ahead of the May 2 FOMC meeting. While we see little chance of a hike then, markets are likely to remain nervous.
23 Apr 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX was mixed Friday, capping a mixed week as a whole. COP, CLP, and MXN were the best performers last week, while RUB, BRL, and TRY were the worst. While concerns about trade wars and Syrian missile strikes have ebbed, risks to EM remain elevated. US retail sales Monday and Fed Beige Book Wednesday are the economic highlights this week.
16 Apr 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM and risk assets came under greater pressure Friday as trade tensions mount. This backdrop is not conducive for EM by any stretch, and unless tensions are ratcheted down, selling pressures are likely to remain in play.
9 Apr 2018
Pro-Western Stans: Central Asian Republics Mulling Capital Markets Push
Just a few years ago, barely any debt capital markets investors would have paid much attention to regions like Central Asia and the CIS. Yet with overwhelming demand for sovereign notes issued by the likes of Belarus and Tajikistan, regular issues from Kazakhstan and a highly anticipated debut Eurobond from Uzbekistan, the region is putting itself on the EM fixed income map.
4 Apr 2018
The War on Trade: How US Protectionism Threatens Global Stability
The US has taken unilateral action to start a potential trade war with China. This is a policy mistake of gigantic proportions resting on a misunderstanding about how open economies work. The direction of US economic policy contrasts sharply with Chinese policies and we expect only a measured, proportional and targeted response from China, which will remain open to deeper trading ties with third…
27 Mar 2018
On the Ground, Off the Record in Africa: Public Debt Access, ESG, and Reform
Will 2018 see more African corporates tap into the public debt market? Are green bonds, sukuk, and other alternative fixed income structures likely to grow in prominence across the continent this year? And will political reversals in some of the region’s largest economies be matched by deep reform? Bonds & Loans spoke with dozens of borrowers, investors, bankers and government representatives at…
26 Mar 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM ended Friday under renewed selling pressures, and capped off a mostly softer week. COP, THB, and TWD were the best performers last week, while TRY, RUB, and ZAR were the worst. Despite a widely expected 25 bp hike, this week’s FOMC meeting still has potential to weigh on EM.
19 Mar 2018
PSB: From Undercapitalized Commercial Bank to Russian Military Bank
Promsvyazbank, one of a number of large private lenders to be taken under the government wing over the past year, is set to assume an unusual role of the Russian military’s main coffer. Manulife senior analyst Richard Segal considers the prospects of such a specialized lending institution in a challenging landscape of sector consolidation and international sanctions.
16 Mar 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25bp by the FOMC this month.
12 Mar 2018
Ratings, Adversity, and EM Policy Responses
As Russia re-emerges from the sub-investment grade mire, Ashmore's Head of Research Jan Dehn questions the sensibility of the original downgrade and, more broadly, the approach credit rating agencies take on assessing sovereign risk.
9 Mar 2018