Over the past week the rand has weakened as the global coronavirus outbreak causes markets to jitter. The rand is particularly vulnerable due to the country’s twin deficits – both current and fiscal – being run by the government, which “both compare poorly in the global context” according to a recent report by Standard Bank.
5 Feb 2020
Global risk appetite and high yields in Egypt’s local currency market are helping to bolster the strength of the Egyptian pound, according to a recent note from Standard Chartered.
28 Jan 2020
Tepid balance of payments figures in Russia are contributing to a shrinking current account surplus, which will place downward pressure on the ruble, according to a report from ING.
22 Jan 2020
While the government’s rhetoric implies commitment to dumping the greenback, latest figures released by the CBR tell a slightly different story.
14 Jan 2020
Mark Mobius, Director of Mobius Capital Partners gives his outlook for 2020
2 Jan 2020
EM has had a good month so far as market optimism on a Phase One trade deal remains high. Yet November trade data due out this week should show that until that deal is finalized, the outlook for EM remains weak. Deadline for the next round of US tariffs is December 15 and so talks this week are crucial. Lastly, three major EM central banks are expected to cut rates this week, underscoring the…
9 Dec 2019
Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data. While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region. Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.…
2 Dec 2019
Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the Brazilian market following a research trip to the region.
22 Nov 2019
EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit. The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic. The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.…
14 Oct 2019
Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats across Africa following a research trip to the region.
10 Oct 2019
EM is likely to come under pressure this week if risk-off sentiment picks up from the Saudi bombings. The oil producing countries may outperform but we think the global backdrop for EM remains negative, especially as US-China relations remain in flux. While things are not getting worse, neither are they getting better. Meanwhile, markets are coming to grips with the fact that the Fed is unlikely…
16 Sep 2019
Market sentiment rallied last week on a lot of unsubstantiated claims by President Trump regarding China trade talks. At best, we know there is no further escalation (for now). At worst, the two sides remain far apart, and a deal is unlikely until 2020. That’s no reason to load up on EM. As long as current and planned tariffs are in effect, global growth risks will remain high and EM will…
2 Sep 2019
The US-China trade war is extending and expanding. There is no longer any semblance of a truce, and this is unequivocally negative for EM. CNY, INR, SGD, MXN, and BRL are making new cycle lows, and many other EM currencies are likely to follow suit.
27 Aug 2019