Global growth concerns are likely to keep EM on its back foot. China and the eurozone reported weak economic data Friday, and even a much stronger than expected US retail sales report was not enough to turn market sentiment.
17 Dec 2018
The long-forgotten instrument is back in the market as commodity exporters are stuck between sanctions-related forced “de-dollarisation” of the Russian economy and their internal requirements for hard-currency funding.
14 Dec 2018
Bonds & Loans speaks with Burcu Geris, Vice President and CFO, TAV Airports Holding about the company’s funding objectives and how markets are influencing the company’s approach to fundraising.
22 Nov 2018
It has been a difficult year for Argentina. With inflation climbing above 40%, the ARS losing over half of its value against the US dollar, and lingering fears remaining following the Notebook scandal, investor confidence has been heavily dampened. But a reform-minded government, coupled with multilateral support, has created a sense that Argentina’s numerous structural deficiencies are beginning…
14 Nov 2018
EM FX has come under renewed pressure as the dollar staged a broad-based recovery after the FOMC meeting. Data this week is likely to show continued robustness in the US economy, cementing a December hike by the Fed. Elsewhere, concerns about China, Italy, and Brexit are likely to weigh on market sentiment. We remain negative on EM.
12 Nov 2018
EM FX got some traction last week as the dollar rally stalled. Still, event risk remains high in many EM countries, notably Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. The FOMC meeting this week is widely expected to see no actions, but the Fed should signal that a December hike is on track. As it is, US yields are marching higher again. We believe the global backdrop for EM remains negative.
5 Nov 2018
With an increasing number of column inches being devoted to the currency rout wreaking havoc on emerging markets, economists and investors suggest looking more closely at the interplay between bond yields, inflation dynamics and real effective exchange rates (REER) provide a better gage of which economies will struggle – and which might thrive – in the current environment.
19 Oct 2018
Jan Dehn, Head of Research at Ashmore, explains why there are two conditions that have to be satisfied before currency volatility can morph into major economic malaise.
12 Oct 2018
We saw a significant EM positioning washout last week, with weak longs getting punished. Anyone lulled into jumping aboard the EM train recently is getting crushed by sharply higher US rates. ARS and BRL bucked the trend and gained last week, but all others were weaker and were led by ZAR, CLP, and COP. MSCI fell 4.5%, while EM bond yields surged. With US rates still marching higher, EM is likely…
8 Oct 2018