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Ratings

Fiscal Stimulus Seen Putting Pressure on Credit Ratings Globally – RenCap

As most of emerging and developed markets announce massive fiscal stimulus packages to compliment monetary policy easing in efforts to contain the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, mass credit downgrades are likely to follow, Renaissance Capital analysts warn.

24 Mar 2020

Bips & Pieces Ratings Global

Saudi Banks’ Margins Squeezed by Fed Cut – Fitch

The US Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates by a further 50bp is placing additional pressure on the margins of Saudi Arabia’s banks, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings. Following the lead of the Fed, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) cut its repo rate on Monday by 50bp, bringing rates in the Kingdom to an all time low of 1%. But the Kingdom’s banks will feel the…

20 Mar 2020

Downgrade of South African Sovereign Now 'Probable' – Nedbank Analysts

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic collides with a crash in the oil price and a broader deceleration of growth, the South Africa sovereign looks set to struggle. According to Jones Gondo, Senior Credit Analyst and Nthulleng Mphahlele, Analyst at Nedbank, the risk of the big three rating agencies downgrading South Africa has been significantly heightened.

19 Mar 2020

Corporate Bond Meltdown Could Expose Debt Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets Despite Coordinated Easing

The ongoing sell-off could raise fears over a global corporate debt bubble, with EM companies particularly vulnerable as uncertainty over the extent and timeline of the COVID19 epidemic persists, IIF analysis explain in a recent research update.

16 Mar 2020

Moody's Follows Oman Sovereign Rating Move with Corporate, Bank Downgrades

Seven lenders and eight non-financial companies saw their ratings cut by one notch, a week after Moody's trimmed Oman's sovereign rating.

13 Mar 2020

Downgrade Would Lead to Exponential Growth in Borrowing Costs – Rand Merchant Bank

The possibility of a Moody’ downgrading the South African sovereign has long been under discussion. But according to Ettienne Le Roux, Chief Economist and Elena Ilkova, Credit Research Analyst at Rand Merchant Bank, a rating downgrade could provoke a much more severe reaction than the simply exclusion of the country’s debt from global indices.

9 Mar 2020

Uruguay on Negative Watch amid Sluggish Growth and Fiscal Concerns – Fitch

In its latest assessment the ratings agency warns elevated public debt is driven even higher as the new coalition government comes into office.

24 Feb 2020

Global Growth Forecast Marked Down Amid Lingering Coronavirus Threat – Moody’s

The ratings agency expects G-20 economies to grow at just 2.4% in 2020, with a pick-up to 2.8% next year.

17 Feb 2020

Latin America 2020: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Take a good look at Latin America’s 21 countries today, and one quickly concludes that this is not a region moving in unison but rather a patchwork of divergent political and economic motors firing at different speeds, taking each in different directions. Rarely has it been this challenging to analyze Latin America as a whole, so it seems appropriate to showcase Latin America’s differences…

11 Feb 2020

Countries Must Protect ‘Natural Capital’ to Lower Sovereign Credit Risk – Grantham Research Institute

The London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment and think tank Planet Tracker have published a report exploring the link between a country’s sovereign bonds and its natural resources, outlining a new research framework intended to allow market participants to integrate these considerations into the credit analysis process.

7 Feb 2020

NKBM’s Subordinated Bond Issue ‘Credit Positive’ – Moody’s

Nova Kreditna banka Maridor, Slovenia’s second-largest bank is planning to issue a EUR90.4mn subordinated bond – the bank’s first foray into the international capital markets since its 2013 default and subsequent privatisation.

6 Feb 2020

Geopolitical Policy Uncertainty, Asset Quality Deterioration, Vulnerability to Fickle Investor Sentiment Weigh on EM Banks – Especially in Turkey

Global and domestic tensions that could threaten policy continuity, asset quality deterioration, and shifting emerging market investor sentiment remain to remain the dominant risks for emerging market banks in 2020, says S&P Global. Turkey remains particularly vulnerable.

27 Jan 2020

Armenian Economy Went from Strength to Strength in 2019 – RAEX

In affirming its positive outlook and BB- rating for Armenia, the agency praised the fiscal stabilisation and a fall in public debt of one of the smaller economies in the CIS.

20 Jan 2020

Sri Lanka: Credit Under Pressure as Fiscal Consolidation Weakens

S&P revised its outlook on Sri Lanka to negative (B) following a similar move from Fitch in December, raising concerns about expansionary fiscal measures put in place by the authorities under recently elected President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

14 Jan 2020

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