EM FX ended last week on a firm note but the week was still a bad one. We think risk-off impulses will continue and likely intensify in the coming weeks. As such, we remain negative on EM as an asset class. China will provide its first glimpse of October with PMI readings, while US jobs report Friday will be the data highlight of the week.
29 Oct 2018
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) indicators are integral to PIMCO’s sovereign credit assessments, which inform our investment decisions. But how exactly do we incorporate ESG considerations into our decisions?
17 Oct 2018
In this exclusive Bonds & Loans webinar we chat to Brad Tank, CIO of Neuberger Berman, on the aftermath of the biggest financial crisis the world faced in the past 30 years - and where the global markets are ten years on.
10 Oct 2018
We saw a significant EM positioning washout last week, with weak longs getting punished. Anyone lulled into jumping aboard the EM train recently is getting crushed by sharply higher US rates. ARS and BRL bucked the trend and gained last week, but all others were weaker and were led by ZAR, CLP, and COP. MSCI fell 4.5%, while EM bond yields surged. With US rates still marching higher, EM is likely…
8 Oct 2018
With the October mini budget speech looming, South Africa’s economy and funding environment come sharply into focus; both remain in a precarious state. Analysts, investors, CFOs and Treasurers who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip to the region emphasise that the way in which the macro environment evolves, and the way in which the government tackles key issues like land reform,…
28 Sept 2018
The recent perturbations across EM assets, the looming shadow of current and potential new sanctions and subdued growth at home have taken a toll on the Russian financial sector. But prudent fiscal and monetary policies and timely actions to minimize sanctions impact have helped shelter banks operating in Russia and the CIS from serious damage, DCM bankers and corporate chiefs have told Bonds &…
27 Sept 2018
Branko Drcelic, Director of the Public Debt Administration at the Ministry of Finance, Serbia sat down with Bonds & Loans to discuss how the country moved from chronic deficits to a healthy surplus, catalysing a local currency debt capital market in the process.
28 Aug 2018
As the world continues to embrace ESG-led investing, a dizzying array of standards and ratings tools has emerged to help clarify the underlying non-economic impact of an investment and help investors make sense of ESG-linked assets. This explosion in ratings, criteria and standards, however, could sow more confusion than they aim to resolve.
24 Aug 2018
EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.
28 May 2018
EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.
21 May 2018