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PSB: From Undercapitalized Commercial Bank to Russian Military Bank

Promsvyazbank, one of a number of large private lenders to be taken under the government wing over the past year, is set to assume an unusual role of the Russian military’s main coffer. Manulife senior analyst Richard Segal considers the prospects of such a specialized lending institution in a challenging landscape of sector consolidation and international sanctions.

16 Mar 2018

Ratings, Adversity, and EM Policy Responses

As Russia re-emerges from the sub-investment grade mire, Ashmore's Head of Research Jan Dehn questions the sensibility of the original downgrade and, more broadly, the approach credit rating agencies take on assessing sovereign risk.

9 Mar 2018

UPF Corp EMD Head: ‘Africa has bright spots but transparency, governance still pitfalls'

African borrowers have boosted international borrowing over the past few years, but have investor perceptions of the benefits – and risks – inherent to investing on the continent changed during that period? Bonds & Loans speaks with Union Privatfonds EM Corporate Debt Head Sergey Dergachev about how African assets figure within his fixed income portfolios.

6 Mar 2018

Ukraine Makes Strides Forward Despite Lingering Corruption Woes

After a traumatic few years catalysed by the annexation of Crimea and the ensuing civil conflict with its easternmost regions, Ukraine has developed a certain degree of flexibility in managing a series of shocks encountered since. But a lack of progress on crucial reforms, political mismanagement, and consistent lack of access to credit for key sectors like agriculture threaten the progress…

21 Feb 2018

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX ended on a mixed note Friday, but capped off a very strong week overall. Best performers over the past week were RUB, ZAR, and COP, while the worst were PHP, CNY, and TWD. There is not much happening this week that could disrupt the weak dollar narrative, and so EM FX should continue to rally.

19 Feb 2018

Brown Brothers Harriman: Frontier Sovereign Rating Model for Q1 2018

Brown Brothers Harriman: produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.

15 Feb 2018

Russia: Western Banks in Wait-and-See Mode Amid Consolidation, Sanctions Risk

Over the past three years, the Central Bank of Russia has done an impressive job of staving off financial crisis while continuing to consolidate the country’s bloated banking sector. But as the state’s share in the sector approaches 70%, questions are being asked about the sustainability of its approach and the risks for private lenders, particularly those headquartered abroad.

31 Jan 2018

The Spectre of Communism Haunts Vietnam’s Credit Market Despite Solid Growth

Vietnam has become one of the most stable and high-performing economies in Asia over the past decade, providing a cheaper alternative for global production and manufacturing giants to the resurgent China. As the country looks to develop and further open its capital markets, unsustainable credit growth and the burden of funding the Party machine could bring a dark twist to this tale of prosperity.

26 Jan 2018

Paraguay is the new Star in the Mercosur

I have covered Paraguay since 2004, when I was working for Merrill Lynch. At that time, to open a relationship in Paraguay and get all approvals from compliance was a nightmare. The ROI was amazing, but the headache given by the account was three times greater than any other country in the region, too. Since 2003, however, Paraguay changed a lot.

22 Jan 2018

ACRA, Russia’s Credit Rating Revolution, and Red Herring Reform

Many foreign credit rating agencies – the Big Three in particular – balked when the Russian government tightened controls on the regulation of credit rating agencies, a move intended to bring more transparency to the sector and eliminate conflicts of interest. Borrowers, analysts and investors are sceptical about the rules’ ability to deliver on its stated goals.

2 Jan 2018

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