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Coronavirus

China Unlikely to See Swift Recovery Despite Industrial Activity Resuming

Tentative signs of an impending recovery as factories reopen should not overshadow the reality that COVID-19’s impact on the Chinese economy will far exceed that of SARS or the global financial crisis, IIF warns.

27 Mar 2020

Bips & Pieces Policy & Government Coronavirus

COVID-19 Could Restart US-China Trade Tensions – Control Risks

With the US likely to fall into a recession combined with widespread social disruption caused by the lockdown, Trump’s re-election this November appears uncertain. Far from soothing tensions between the US and China, the pandemic has heightened them.

27 Mar 2020

Kenyan Bond Yields Spike Due to Pandemic, Locust Disruption – Cytonn Investments

As the COVID-19 pandemic wracks emerging and developed economies alike, market have gone into overdrive with shares and bonds both suffering heavy sell-offs as investors flee to the safety of US dollars. Kenya’s local currency treasury bonds (TBs) and outstanding Eurobonds have been no exception to this trend.

26 Mar 2020

UAE Bank to See Asset Quality Weaken – Fitch Ratings

The impact of the coronavirus is being felt by countries and sectors worldwide, but the UAE is particularly sensitive as key sectors like oil & gas and logistics feel the disruption more severely. For the country’s banking sector, the pandemic looks set to place additional pressure on banks’ credit profiles by reducing asset quality, according to a note from Fitch Ratings.

24 Mar 2020

Looking Past the Pandemic: Where Will the Opportunities Lie?

The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has derailed the outlook of investors worldwide as growth and trade grind to a halt. With no clear end to the crisis in sight, many are increasingly bearish. But according to Hani Redha, Multi Asset Portfolio Manager at Pinebridge Investments, if investors look past what is likely a temporary downturn, then there are opportunities in the distance.

24 Mar 2020

Which SSA Economies are Most Vulnerable to COVID-19?

Africa appears so far – at least according to official statistics – to have contained the spread of COVID-19, with SSA reporting fewer than 300 confirmed cases. But this does not mean the region will be able to ride out the storm and avoid the economic and health impact seen elsewhere.

24 Mar 2020

Do Current Valuations Compensate Investors for Increased Default Risk?

As COVID-19 and the ongoing oil price spat between Riyadh and Moscow continues to wreak havoc on markets across the world, the spreads on high yield assets in both EM and DM have widened significantly. With many companies seeing their revenues take a beating at countries go into lockdown, and with many sovereigns juggling their need for fiscal stimulus with already lopsided public finances, Iain…

23 Mar 2020

As Flight to Safety Escalates, Fiscal Stimulus Prospects Vary Widely Across Emerging Markets

Total spread widening for the EMBI Global Index has reached a remarkable 286bp, according to ING, more than the 241bp monthly change seen at the peak of the 2008 crisis. Fiscal injections will be required across the board, but continued access to the debt capital markets will be instrumental for countries to pursue fiscal easing to soften the blow from the economic slowdown.

20 Mar 2020

Saudi Banks’ Margins Squeezed by Fed Cut – Fitch

The US Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates by a further 50bp is placing additional pressure on the margins of Saudi Arabia’s banks, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings. Following the lead of the Fed, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) cut its repo rate on Monday by 50bp, bringing rates in the Kingdom to an all time low of 1%. But the Kingdom’s banks will feel the…

20 Mar 2020

As Emerging Market Sovereign Credits Come Under Pressure, Ukraine Could Catch a Break

With conditions deteriorating across the board in the sovereign space amid the worsening COVID19 pandemic, Ukraine – which has seen surprisingly few cases so far – could come out stronger on the other end, Goldman Sachs analysis indicates.

20 Mar 2020

Downgrade of South African Sovereign Now 'Probable' – Nedbank Analysts

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic collides with a crash in the oil price and a broader deceleration of growth, the South Africa sovereign looks set to struggle. According to Jones Gondo, Senior Credit Analyst and Nthulleng Mphahlele, Analyst at Nedbank, the risk of the big three rating agencies downgrading South Africa has been significantly heightened.

19 Mar 2020

Coronavirus is Turning Out to be the Great (Valuation) Leveller for Markets

The global economy may be going into meltdown mode as governments the world over struggle to contain the spread of COVID-19, with investors feeling the brunt of a global selloff that seems to have left no asset class – including emerging market debt – unscathed as economies grind to a halt. While it is still too early to fully understand the potential human, economic, and market fallout, many…

19 Mar 2020

EM Outflows at Near-Record Level since January– IIF

The cumulative negative impact of the coronavirus-related shocks on capital volumes going into EMs has surpassed lows seen during the Taper Tantrum and the peak of the global financial crisis, latest numbers posted by the IIF suggest.

18 Mar 2020

World's Central Banks' “Shock and Awe” Does Little to Sooth Markets as US Stocks Drop 10%

Global stock markets plummeted again on Monday and US Treasuries soared as coordinate move by world’s central banks to slash rates to zero territory and resume QE proved insufficient.

16 Mar 2020

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