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Oil Market is Rallying ‘Much Too Soon’ – ING

Oil markets continued to make a modest recovery this week amidst moves to ease lockdown restrictions in a number of countries worldwide. But a sustained recovery could be some way off, according to Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao, commodities economists at ING.

19 May 2020

Bips & Pieces Global Commodities

Fitch Sees Record Sovereign Defaults in 2020

The severe shock from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to lead to a record spike in sovereign defaults as risks grow for countries with weak fundamentals and heavy exposure to commodities and tourism, according to Fitch Ratings.

15 May 2020

Barings Sees Buying Opportunity in Short-Dated EM Debt

Emerging market corporate debt spreads blew-out following a sharp selloff in March, but the effect on issuer yield curves is creating new opportunities to buy into short-dated corporate debt, according to Barings.

14 May 2020

EM Assets Torn Between Fundamentals Deterioration and Unprecedented Liquidity Injections – Barclays

As a tussle between deteriorating fundamentals on the ground and unprecedented liquidity support from global central banks and governments ensues, emerging market sovereign bonds are starting to stratify between larger “haves” and smaller “have-nots”, with few countries falling in between, according to analysts at Barclays.

14 May 2020

Sustainable Bond Issuance Falls, But Social Bonds on the Rise – Moody’s

Total volumes of sustainable bond issuance are set to fall as the COVID-19 pandemic creates a rocky environment for borrowers, according to Matthew Kuchtyak, AVP-Analyst at Moody’s. Sustainable bond issuance is likely to total USD325bn this year, a downward revision of USD75bn from the USD400bn forecast previously.

11 May 2020

Private Sector Deleveraging Required to Plug EM Current Account Deficits - IIF

As countries worldwide are forced to spend unprecedented amounts to counter the economic and health effects of COVID-19, fiscal and current account deficits are set to rise globally. Rocky market conditions mean most EM sovereigns will struggle to access external funding, however, leaving the local private sector to pick up the slack, according to a recent report from the Institute of…

7 May 2020

Emerging Market Oil & Gas Operators Could Benefit from Quasi-Sovereign Status

With oil having recently dipped into negative territory and investors turning bearish on emerging markets and other risk assets, you would think the prospects for emerging market oil & gas companies in international capital markets would be slim to nil. But you may be wrong.

6 May 2020

Emerging Market Debt Outflows Tapered Dramatically in April

Net emerging market debt outflows have dropped dramatically through much of April, but central bank backstops in investment grade developed market debt may limit how quickly EM bonds bounce back.

6 May 2020

Gold Prices Surge Due on Pandemic Disruption

The ongoing volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has seen the price of gold become dislocated, as it has avoided becoming victim to the demand shocks that have hit the price of other commodities.

4 May 2020

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM assets are coming off a good week, but storm clouds lie ahead. The economic data last week for unequivocally bad, and this week is unlikely to bring much relief. With risk-off sentiment picking up, we expect EM to come under pressure this week.

4 May 2020

Global QE Asset Purchases to Reach USD6tn in 2020 - Fitch

As economies across the globe are rattled by the economic chaos caused by the coronavirus pandemic, governments and central banks have been pulling out all the stops to buoy their economies. Quantitative easing (QE) is increasingly being deployed worldwide, with total purchases set to top USD6tn this year according to Fitch Ratings.

29 Apr 2020

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM came under greater pressure last week as market sentiment soured. Some countries underperformed due to their own idiosyncratic risks, such as Brazil and Mexico. Markets will get their first glimpse of the mainland Chinese economy with official PMI readings, but we doubt continued improvement there will be enough to boost sentiment significantly. Neither will dovish outcomes from BOJ, Fed,…

27 Apr 2020

Ashmore: The Case for a Global Macro-Prudential Policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ Emerging Markets (EM) countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time. This behaviour has been ubiquitous in past crises and the 2020 Coronavirus Crisis is no exception. EM countries have experienced indiscriminate outflows,…

24 Apr 2020

Global Remittances Will See 20% Drop Amid Pandemic – World Bank Group

Falling wages and rising unemployment among migrant workers will lead to the sharpest drop in recent history, according to the Group’s report.

24 Apr 2020

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