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It cannot have escaped investors’ attention that stock markets are surging and spreads are tightening. Yet, the world has not looked as bad as this in political and economic terms for a very long time. Asset prices seem divorced from fundamental realities. How and why does this happen and what does it mean for investment? This short note aims to provide a brief perspective on these questions.
9 Jun 2020
Risk-on was the theme last week and that is likely to continue this week. That’s good news for EM, which has benefited from improved market sentiment. Commodity prices continue to recover, even though the data out of mainland China remain mixed. The Fed is expected to reaffirm its current policy stance when the FOMC meets this week.
8 Jun 2020
Social risk is an understudied and underappreciated facet of the ESG umbrella. As an expansive concept, it can be pivotal in credit performance, particularly in emerging markets and especially during these challenging times. But why does pricing social risk remain so elusive?
4 Jun 2020
Net fund flows into emerging market debt were flat for the week ending May 27, with investors continuing to favour hard currency debt over local assets.
2 Jun 2020
EM FX had a solid week, helped by overall weakness in the dollar. Trump’s threats against China turned out to be much ado about nothing and so risk assets ended the week on a strong note. This week, markets will be looking for some sort of response from China but quite honestly, Trump did so little that we may not see anything beyond some snarky Tweets from the Global Times. For now, the…
1 Jun 2020
A recent report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) notes that the global debt of the airline industry could climb by 28% to USD550bn by end 2020 – a USD120bn increase from the start of the year.
28 May 2020
ESG-tilted portfolios and assets have outperformed their non-sustainable counterparts through much of the recent market turbulence, according to MSCI and other index and data providers. In a recent paper, BlackRock says a positive correlation between ESG and performance appears strongest for firms that prioritise people.
26 May 2020
Oil markets continued to make a modest recovery this week amidst moves to ease lockdown restrictions in a number of countries worldwide. But a sustained recovery could be some way off, according to Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao, commodities economists at ING.
19 May 2020
The severe shock from the coronavirus pandemic is likely to lead to a record spike in sovereign defaults as risks grow for countries with weak fundamentals and heavy exposure to commodities and tourism, according to Fitch Ratings.
15 May 2020
Emerging market corporate debt spreads blew-out following a sharp selloff in March, but the effect on issuer yield curves is creating new opportunities to buy into short-dated corporate debt, according to Barings.
14 May 2020