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IIF: Frontier Market Debt, Driven by Government Borrowing, Hit New All-Time Highs in 2019

Rising budget deficits are a cause for concern, particularly as climate-related risks accumulate, the IIF warned in its latest report.

24 Feb 2020

Ashmore: Quantifying EM Sovereign Fair Value

It is tough to beat the long-term risk-adjusted returns of Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign debt. The asset class has consistently delivered steady performance even during poor macroeconomic environments for EM economies. On a forward-looking basis, a simple quantitative analysis demonstrates investors receive six to ten times more spread over US Treasury than the actual default risk embedded in…

19 Feb 2020

Global Growth Forecast Marked Down Amid Lingering Coronavirus Threat – Moody’s

The ratings agency expects G-20 economies to grow at just 2.4% in 2020, with a pick-up to 2.8% next year.

17 Feb 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep EM under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still unknown. Global growth was already at risk before the virus hit and now the outlook is even cloudier.

17 Feb 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk-off sentiment intensified last week. Near-term, we think EM is likely to remain under pressure until the full impact of the coronavirus is better known. On top of this, there is broad-based dollar strength. Besides the safe haven flows, the US outlook remains very strong. Taken in conjunction with the recent weak data out of Germany, France, and Japan, it’s clear that the US economy…

10 Feb 2020

Countries Must Protect ‘Natural Capital’ to Lower Sovereign Credit Risk – Grantham Research Institute

The London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment and think tank Planet Tracker have published a report exploring the link between a country’s sovereign bonds and its natural resources, outlining a new research framework intended to allow market participants to integrate these considerations into the credit analysis process.

7 Feb 2020

Risk-Off Sentiment ‘Relatively Limited’ in Response to Coronavirus – Blackrock

As a growing number of cases of coronavirus are confirmed outside of China markets have become shaky.

6 Feb 2020

EM Local Markets and USD High Yield from Ukraine, Egypt to Remain Attractive in 2020 - Nuveen

In its global investment outlook note titled “20/20 vision: a clearer path for growth” the firm maintains a bullish stance on emerging markets.

4 Feb 2020

Oil Price Volatility Provides Crucial Test for OPEC+

Oil prices continued to tumble during the first week of February as the coronavirus outbreak intensified, taking Brent Crude futures down nearly 12% year to date and sending OPEC+ scrambling to contain to counter the impact.

3 Feb 2020

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM remains vulnerable to deteriorating risk sentiment as the coronavirus spreads. China announced a series of measures over the weekend to help support its financial markets, but this may not be enough to turn sentiment around yet. China markets reopen Monday after the extended Lunar New Year holiday and it won’t be pretty.

3 Feb 2020

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