The US-China trade war is extending and expanding. There is no longer any semblance of a truce, and this is unequivocally negative for EM. CNY, INR, SGD, MXN, and BRL are making new cycle lows, and many other EM currencies are likely to follow suit.
27 Aug 2019
As major Central Banks look set for more monetary easing, yield-hungry investors are once again piling into some of the more exotic sovereign bonds - and supply is growing in response.
21 Aug 2019
EM is likely to remain under pressure. Despite some signs of a slight thaw in US-China relations, a trade deal remains far off and so global growth and trade are likely to see continued downside risks.
19 Aug 2019
Joelmir Baumgratz discusses increasing capacity for less cost, consolidation in the airlines market, oil price fluctuations driving complex hedging strategies and using air miles as collateral on financings to bring yields down.
13 Aug 2019
In one of a series of exclusive market snapshots for Bonds & Loans, Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors and one of the most experienced and successful capital managers in the mining sector, talks about the demand-supply market dynamics, the growing role of China, and why fracking is here to stay.
12 Aug 2019
EM is likely to remain under pressure as US -China relations remain strained. Despite his claims that things are going “very well”, President Trump admitted that the September talks might be cancelled. This is very negative for EM, which saw some stability towards the end of last week.
12 Aug 2019
EM remains under severe pressure. The less dovish than expected Fed, renewed trade tensions, and a broad-based dollar rally have conspired to absolutely crush EM FX and equities. These drivers are likely to carry over into this week and so we remain bearish on EM.
5 Aug 2019
Last week’s dovish tilt by the ECB should have been EM-supportive. However, global trade tensions remain high despite the rebooted US-China talks in Shanghai this week and so we remain bearish on EM. China reports July PMI readings, and the first glimpse of the world’s second-largest economy in H2 are expected to show continued softness.
29 Jul 2019
Against a backdrop of trade wars and flagging global growth, supply-side pressures can only provide a limited buffer for commodity prices. As demand-side concerns continue to dominate, even geopolitical volatility does not seem able to stem sliding prices.
23 Jul 2019
EM central banks remain in easing mode, as the US-China trade war continues to have ripples across global markets. Reports suggest little progress has been seen, suggesting headwinds to global growth will continue through much of H2. We remain negative on EM, as the liquidity story (both domestic and global) is not enough to offset the uncertain global growth story.
22 Jul 2019