EM has had a good month so far as market optimism on a Phase One trade deal remains high. Yet November trade data due out this week should show that until that deal is finalized, the outlook for EM remains weak. Deadline for the next round of US tariffs is December 15 and so talks this week are crucial. Lastly, three major EM central banks are expected to cut rates this week, underscoring the downside risks to growth.
Win Thin is the Global Head of Emerging Markets Strategy and has over 25 years of investment experience. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Prior to joining BBH in June 2007, he founded Mandalay Advisors, an independent research firm that provided sovereign emerging market analysis to institutional investors. Prior to that, Win was a vice president and international economist, covering major emerging markets in Asia and Latin America for Alliance Capital Management
Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep EM under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still unknown. Global growth was already at risk before the virus hit and now the outlook is even cloudier.
Feb 17, 2020
Risk-off sentiment intensified last week. Near-term, we think EM is likely to remain under pressure until the full impact of the coronavirus is better known. On top of this, there is broad-based dollar strength. Besides the safe haven flows, the US outlook remains very strong. Taken in conjunction with the recent weak data out of Germany, France, and Japan, it’s clear that the US economy…
Feb 10, 2020
EM remains vulnerable to deteriorating risk sentiment as the coronavirus spreads. China announced a series of measures over the weekend to help support its financial markets, but this may not be enough to turn sentiment around yet. China markets reopen Monday after the extended Lunar New Year holiday and it won’t be pretty.
Feb 3, 2020
The spread of the coronavirus continues and is likely to weigh on risk assets and EM. Most markets in Emerging Asia are closed for all or part of this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. China has extended the holiday until February 2 as it struggles to contain the virus. The Asian region is just starting to recover from the global trade tensions, and now it must cope with what is likely to…
Jan 27, 2020