Investor Insights
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.
4 Jun 2018
Off the Record: Interest Rates, Election Uncertainty Testing Turkish Issuers
Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and…
30 May 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.
28 May 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.
21 May 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.
14 May 2018
Off the Record: Issuers, Investors Upbeat on Sovereign Sukuk Prospects
Participants at an exclusive Sovereign Sukuk Roundtable hosted by Bonds & Loans and Emirates NBD Capital were upbeat about the benefits sukuk bring for both borrowers and investors, but concerns around thin liquidity, a lack of standards, and regulatory uncertainty have prompted difficult questions about the outlook for the asset class.
11 May 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.
8 May 2018
A Disturbance in the Force: Institutional Frameworks and Vigilantism
The common denominator linking the US Trade War with China, sanctions against Russia and the attacks on Syria was that there were no attempts made to find solutions to these conflicts within multilateral institutions, such as the UN and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). The word used to describe the act of seeking justice outside the formal framework of the law is vigilantism. Vigilantism leads…
4 May 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a firm note, capping off a generally softer week overall. TRY and PHP were the best performers last week, while CLP and ZAR were the worst. US core PCE, ISM manufacturing, FOMC meeting, and jobs data all pose risks to EM this week. We remain a bit defensive on risk assets in general now.
30 Apr 2018
Green Bonds Move Forward – But Same Old Questions Persist Unanswered
Global green bond issuance surged to record levels in 2017 with more than USD155bn issued globally, but despite a 78% increase in issuance volumes and the development of innovative new products, analysts contend the market’s growth remains hamstrung by the same old issues as they wait for green’s watershed moment.
24 Apr 2018