Investor Insights
The Flipside of Turkey
United States sanctions against two Turkish government ministers triggered the recent bout of volatility in the Turkish currency market. While Turkey was fundamentally vulnerable to begin with, due to a lengthy period of bad economic policies, the fact that volatility was so severe and spread far beyond Turkey indicates that this was not just about Turkey. It is also about the major shift in…
12 Sept 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, with TRY and ARS leading the gains. However, the jobs data supports our view that the Fed is likely to continue hiking rates, which is negative for EM. Furthermore, trade tensions will remain high after the US announced plans to slap tariffs on an additional $267 bln of Chinese imports. This negative backdrop should weigh on EM this week.
10 Sept 2018
Abraaj Collapse Reverberates Through GCC Private Equity Markets
As recently as 2016 the Abraaj Group was flying high: with around USD13.6bn of assets under management globally, the investment firm was one of the biggest in the region and blazed the trail for GCC private equity investors to expand into the growth markets. Two years on, abandoned by its founder Arif Naqvi, it is facing USD1.2bn in debt, multiple lawsuits and an unprecedented level of attention…
7 Sept 2018
Brazil Election: The Wacky Races
There is no lack of tricks, opportunism and muddling in Brazil's latest electoral race. It is hard to determine what is worse: the silence of Jair Bolsonaro on basic economic issues or the incapacity of PT for renewing its economic agenda.
3 Sept 2018
Turkey: Call and Response
With Turkey seemingly approaching a critical junction in its economic trajectory, a call with the country’s Minister of Finance sheds light on how the country looks to tackle the rising challenges confronting it. Manulife analyst Richard Segal shares the details.
30 Aug 2018
Will ESG Standards and Ratings Heterogeneity Kill the Sustainable Finance Market?
As the world continues to embrace ESG-led investing, a dizzying array of standards and ratings tools has emerged to help clarify the underlying non-economic impact of an investment and help investors make sense of ESG-linked assets. This explosion in ratings, criteria and standards, however, could sow more confusion than they aim to resolve.
24 Aug 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX stabilized last week as the situation in Turkey calmed somewhat. Reports Friday that the US and China are hoping to resolve the trade dispute also helped EM FX ahead of the weekend. However, TRY remains vulnerable as the US threatens more sanctions due to the pastor. Both S&P and Moody’s downgraded it ahead of the weekend and our own ratings model points to further downgrades ahead. Turkish…
20 Aug 2018
Barings: Brazil's Industrial Production Soars in June after Truckers' Strike Ends
Brazil’s current account balance came in at a surplus of USD435mn in June, below the USD1.3bn surplus registered in the same month last year.
13 Aug 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX has come under pressure again due to ongoing trade tensions and rising US rates, but saw some modest relief Friday after the PBOC announcement on FX forwards. This helped EM FX stabilize, but we do not think the negative fundamental backdrop has changed. Best performers last week were MXN, PHP, and PEN while the worst were TRY, ZAR, and KRW.
6 Aug 2018
A LIBORious Transition: Weaning the World off the Most Popular Credit Benchmark
About a year has passed since the UK FCA’s Chief Executive Andrew Bailey set the deadline for the financial markets’ transition away from LIBOR, upon which roughly USD350tn in securities, loans and derivatives across five major currencies is contracted. Finding an alternative that can satisfy the diversity of markets that rest upon this crucial benchmark is proving to be more elusive than…
3 Aug 2018