Investor Insights
Brazil: Who is Going to Foot the Bill?
In recent years, many state governors in Brazil avoided the necessary adjustment of public accounts, largely down to the intense election calendar. For some, the calculation went wrong and the public response came through the ballot boxes.
27 Nov 2018
Rimrock Capital: “Concrete, realistic and credible policy needed to improve Turkey’s credit”
Turkey’s credit fundamentals are deteriorating, squeezed by high exposure of the corporates to USD debt and rising NPLs. Strong and transparent policy measures – including supporting local banks if necessary – are needed to breath life into the economy, Novruz Bashirov, Portfolio Manager at Rimrock Capital, told Bonds & Loans.
26 Nov 2018
GCC Credit Allure Strong Against Broader EM Challenges, But Fundamental Shifts Can’t be Ignored
The outlook for GCC credit remains buoyant through the remainder of the year despite a brief lull through the summer months. Still, deeper and more frequent questions about the structural challenges faced by many of the GCC economies suggest more uncertainty lies ahead in the longer term, according to bankers, borrowers, investors and economists who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research…
23 Nov 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX caught a bid last week as markets took Fed comments to be on the dovish side. Given how firm the US data have been of late, we do not agree with the newly prevailing view that the Fed will be more cautious. However, we must respect the price action and so this dollar correction will likely extend until the market’s Fed view reverses again.
19 Nov 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX has come under renewed pressure as the dollar staged a broad-based recovery after the FOMC meeting. Data this week is likely to show continued robustness in the US economy, cementing a December hike by the Fed. Elsewhere, concerns about China, Italy, and Brexit are likely to weigh on market sentiment. We remain negative on EM.
12 Nov 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX got some traction last week as the dollar rally stalled. Still, event risk remains high in many EM countries, notably Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. The FOMC meeting this week is widely expected to see no actions, but the Fed should signal that a December hike is on track. As it is, US yields are marching higher again. We believe the global backdrop for EM remains negative.
5 Nov 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended last week on a firm note but the week was still a bad one. We think risk-off impulses will continue and likely intensify in the coming weeks. As such, we remain negative on EM as an asset class. China will provide its first glimpse of October with PMI readings, while US jobs report Friday will be the data highlight of the week.
29 Oct 2018
Investor: Turkey Has One of Lowest Debt/GDP Ratio’s in EM, but Inflation Still a Worry
Tevfik Eraslan, the CEO of İş Asset Management, a privately-owned investment manager based in Turkey (which also provides investment advisory services), discusses Q3 prospects for the Turkish economy, inflationary pressures and a diminishing political risk after next year’s elections.
25 Oct 2018
Russia SWOT Analysis: Sanctions, De-dollarisation, and Prepayment Finance
A closer look at the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats influencing the investment and debt capital markets climate in Russia.
23 Oct 2018
Rising Rates, Volatility Force Latin American Banks, Borrowers to Adapt to “New Normal”
Latin American economies are facing a range of complex challenges, both internal and external, as they power through the current election super-cycle – arguably the most significant in the region’s history. Bonds & Loans spoke to a number of Latin America-focussed debt capital markets bankers, rating agencies and law firms in the Americas to get a sense of the major themes and concerns that will…
22 Oct 2018