Investor Insights
Emerging Markets FX Technical Picture: How Far Can This Correction Go?
How far can this EM FX correction go? Since mid-November, the greenback has been broadly softer due to a variety of factors. EM FX has taken advantage of this, and the top EM performers are ZAR (+5.5%), MXN (+3.8%), and RUB (+3%). TRY has been noticeably lagging, -1.4% since November 15. Many EM currencies are starting to bump up against key chart points, and so the dollar may finally get some…
1 Dec 2017
Can South Africa Get its Fiscal Groove Back?
With real GDP growth at near zero and fiscal projects trending downward, it’s unsurprising Standard & Poor’s didn’t wait for the ANC leadership contest in late 2017, or the next budget release, to cut the country’s credit rating to junk. The real question now is: how quickly can the country reverse course?
29 Nov 2017
BBH: Frontier Sovereign Rating Model for Q4 2017
BBH has produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.
3 Nov 2017
BBH: EM Sovereign Rating Model for Q4 2017
We have produced the following Emerging Markets (EM) ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk. An EM country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations. Each score is determined by a weighted compilation of fifteen economic and political indicators, which include external debt/GDP, short-term debt/reserves, import cover,…
25 Oct 2017
How Might Companies Change their Approach to Community Investment?
A classic Latin American story repeats itself from project to project: Rural people play the role of the Victim. Outsiders, like mining companies, fall into the role of Villain. Discussions polarize. Local people feel powerless. They see the Villain as a threat to land and culture, a threat to power. Local organizations emerge as defenders of the community. The community rises against the Villain…
13 Oct 2017
Off the Record: Middle East DCM Must Evolve to Prosper in Challenging Times
As the annual Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Middle East Awards approaches, we discuss some of the themes emerging behind the scenes in Middle East debt capital markets, looking at concerns voiced by bankers, investors and CFOs in private discussions as well as the opportunities on the horizon for foreign FIs and investors looking to delve deeper into the region.
6 Oct 2017
Have BRICS Been Overshadowed by the Rest of the EM Pack?
Heads of state of the BRICS countries descended upon Xiamen, China earlier this month to discuss how to propel the bloc’s trade and commercial links forward. But with most of the organisation’s leading members knee-deep in political or economic mud, analysts are left wondering whether they have been overshadowed by the rest of the emerging market pack.
15 Sept 2017
Emerging Market Regulators Make Strides Building Green Bond Momentum
Growing support for market-driven policies aimed at facilitating green issuance has created important wins for the sustainable finance segment, especially in emerging market countries like China, India, and Mexico. But with the bulk of those policies, at their core, fixated on determining what qualifies as ‘green’, key questions about industry standards – and the best approach to applying them –…
25 Aug 2017
Off the Record: Hunting for Value in Africa with Bond Fund Managers
We speak with a number of leading Africa-focused fixed income fund managers to get a better sense of the opportunities and risks present in the continent’s emerging and frontier economies.
18 Aug 2017
Off the Record: Global Investors On Concerns and Opportunities in Emerging Market Debt
The rally in EM assets this year seems all but unstoppable as investors continue hunting for yield further afield amidst persistently low interest rates in developed markets and a weakened US dollar. Is it set to continue? Bonds and Loans speaks with global investors one-on-one about macro trends influencing EM debt capital markets.
8 Aug 2017