Global
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
The dollar rally is back on track as the divergence theme re-emerges. DXY traded last week at its highest level since April 2 and is on track to test that day’s cycle high near 97.71. For EM, that has translated into broad-based losses this past week. ARS, RUB, and a handful of other were able to notch small gains last week, but most EM currencies were down against the greenback. COP, BRL, ZAR,…
23 Apr 2019
CASE STUDY: Uzbekistan’s Dual-Tranche Debut Eurobond Marks Milestone in Global Integration
Under the leadership of its new Prime Minister, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has moved further down the long path towards global integration. With its debut USD1bn Eurobond issuance in February this year, Uzbekistan is seeking to establish itself as a regular participant in global financial markets in the years to come.
18 Apr 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX is coming off a good week, capitalizing on broad-based dollar weakness. Better than expected data out of China helped boost market sentiment too. Key US and China data will come out this week and should help determine the short-term outlook for the dollar.
15 Apr 2019
Fifty Shades of Green: How are Banks and Investors Approaching ESG?
The world isn’t the only thing heating up. As issues of governance and climate change continue to dominate headlines, financial institutions are facing growing pressure from governments and public opinion alike to integrate Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) considerations into day-to-day operations – in everything from how they lend or invest to how they run their operational facilities.
11 Apr 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
The dollar was firmer against the majors but softer against EM FX last week. This divergence is unlikely to last. Which is giving the true signal? We believe the broad-based dollar rally remains intact due to our constructive view on the US economy. As such, we expect EM FX to resume weakening in the coming days.
8 Apr 2019
China-US Tensions, War with Iran Dominate Medium-Term GCC Risk Landscape
Despite a positive macro outlook, a blend of rapidly rising regional tensions and an evolving trade dispute between China and the US will weigh more heavily than previously thought on the GCC’s economic prospects in the medium term, argues Dr. Nasser Saidi, Founder and President of Nasser Saidi & Associates and Lebanon’s former Minister of Economy.
4 Apr 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX saw broad-based weakness last week. The only exceptions were TRY (+3.5%) and CNY (+0.1%). The former’s gains were driven in large part by official efforts to stabilize it ahead of Turkish local elections this weekend. These gains are artificial and not sustainable, in our view. The global backdrop remains challenging for EM, as global growth concerns appear to be taking precedent over the…
1 Apr 2019
Eurasia Group: US-China Spat Could Weigh on GCC
Strategically positioned between the US and Asia, the GCC relies heavily on governments and markets in both regions for policy support, investment, and commodities demand. As China and the US double down on opposing trade positions in their pursuit of global economic hegemony, the GCC risks getting caught in the crossfire, according to Ayham Kamel, Practice Head for MENA at Eurasia Group.
27 Mar 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM got hit hard last week by risk-off sentiment that picked up in the wake of the FOMC meeting. Like the recent ECB decision, markets are rightfully focusing on the global growth implications of the dovish central banks rather than the liquidity implications. The US yield curve briefly inverted last week. If sustained, it would signal a likely US recession in the next 6-24 months. This is hardly…
25 Mar 2019
BBH: EM Sovereign Rating Model for Q2 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) have produced the following Emerging Markets (EM) ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk.
20 Mar 2019