Global
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended a good week on a strong note, with virtually every currency up against the greenback. The FOMC is likely to send a very dovish message to the markets this week. While this should help EM gain, we note that risk assets generally did not do well after the January FOMC and March ECB meetings. We think that global growth concerns will become more of an issue in the coming days.
18 Mar 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX came under great pressure last week despite the ECB’s dovish hold. Markets instead focused on the grim eurozone economic outlook, which comes within the context of a broader global slowdown. It’s clear that EM needs more than just the liquidity story, though that may be tested too with the spate of US data releases (retail sales, CPI, and PPI) out this week. We remain negative on EM.
11 Mar 2019
Customized Solutions, Investor Demand Key Drivers of ESG Growth
Last year was the first in a decade where the sustainable finance market failed to show significant growth, largely in line with broader slowdown in fixed income. But structural innovation is likely to continue driving this market forward, making it is an asset class that even the largest investors can’t ignore, according to experts participating with a roundtable hosted by Societe Generale.
7 Mar 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended the week soft as the dollar continued to claw back recent losses on the back of higher US rates. US jobs data this Friday will be very important to keep the trend of rising US rates going. Meanwhile, low inflation in EM should allow central banks to start contemplating rate cuts, though none are expected to cut anytime soon.
4 Mar 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM ended the week firm on rising optimism regarding US-China trade. Talks will continue this week ahead of Friday’s deadline. It may be too soon to strike a deal, however, and so we expect a 60-day extension. China provides the first snapshot of February activity with its PMI readings this week, where some stability is seen after recent stimulus measures. Downside risks remain in place, however.
25 Feb 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
Since their post-FOMC peak on January 31, both MSCI EM and MSCI EM FX have fallen. Virtually every EM currency has given up their post-FOMC gains, the lone exception being MYR (+0.2%). The worst performers have been ZAR (-6%), ARS (-3.3%), and TRY (-2.3%). This supports our belief that the liquidity and low US rates story is not enough to sustain the EM rally on its own. What’s still missing is…
18 Feb 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended the week mixed but gave up much of their post-FOMC gains as the week progressed. MYR, PHP, and MXN were the best EM performers for the week and posted small gains. ZAR, BRL, and ARS were the worst in EM, dropping nearly 2% against USD. US-China trade talks and Chinese data are likely to set the tone for EM this week. Reports that the US government may shut down again should weigh on…
11 Feb 2019
Uncertain Global Outlook Highlights GCC Debt Opportunity
As investors around the world brace for continued uncertainty in 2019 that will test the steeliest of nerves, the outlook for debt markets in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) region is a much brighter one, with the potential for strong risk adjusted returns.
7 Feb 2019
BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX ended the week on a soft note as the dollar remains resilient. Very weak EM PMI readings so far in January are very concerning and underscore why we remain negative on EM despite the Fed capitulating to the market and tilting more dovish. Firmer currencies should allow EM central banks that meet this week to keep rates steady.
4 Feb 2019
Safe Enough: Investors Likely to Sit Out Volatility in Traditional Havens
Last year marked the first in decades when global markets ended with a net loss across most asset classes. As the investors begin to earmark potential destinations for their retreat when the time comes to cut their losses and run, they may be hesitant to funnel everything into the historical safe havens such as US Treasuries, developed market sovereigns, and gold.
31 Jan 2019