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Economics and Markets

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM assets are coming off a good week, but storm clouds lie ahead. The economic data last week for unequivocally bad, and this week is unlikely to bring much relief. With risk-off sentiment picking up, we expect EM to come under pressure this week.

4 May 2020

Emerging Europe Shifts from Dollars to Euros for Credit

Last year saw euro-denominated credit overtake US-dollar denominated credit for emerging European economies, standing at EUR377bn by end-2019, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The growth of euro-denominated credit outside the euro area slowed by 6% overall, however.

30 Apr 2020

Off the Record: CFOs and Treasurers Target Working Capital Management and Supply Chain Support as Lockdowns Grip Markets

While governments and multilateral agencies announce a raft of measures to support businesses, banks, and individuals, UAE-based CFOs and treasurers batten down the hatches as focus shifts towards liquidity management, supplier support, and cost reduction.

29 Apr 2020

Nigeria Pledges Switch to Domestic Market Funding as IMF Approves USD3.4bn in Support

Nigeria’s government plans to hold off borrowing internationally and instead tap the domestic market to finance the 2020 budget, the country’s president said this week. The move is seen as an important shift in government policy amidst tumbling oil prices and rising bond yields.

29 Apr 2020

Dubai, Saudi Arabia Start Easing Lockdown Measures

Authorities in Dubai and Saudi Arabia are to begin easing lockdown measures, although most restrictions on group gatherings remain in place.

27 Apr 2020

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM came under greater pressure last week as market sentiment soured. Some countries underperformed due to their own idiosyncratic risks, such as Brazil and Mexico. Markets will get their first glimpse of the mainland Chinese economy with official PMI readings, but we doubt continued improvement there will be enough to boost sentiment significantly. Neither will dovish outcomes from BOJ, Fed,…

27 Apr 2020

ADB approves USD1.5bn financing to support Philippines

The Asian Development Bank has announced a USD1.5bn financing package to support the Philippines’ response to COVID-19. The budget support will help protect the Philippines’ population and the healthcare system.

27 Apr 2020

Ashmore: The Case for a Global Macro-Prudential Policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ Emerging Markets (EM) countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time. This behaviour has been ubiquitous in past crises and the 2020 Coronavirus Crisis is no exception. EM countries have experienced indiscriminate outflows,…

24 Apr 2020

Turkey’s Central Bank Cuts Rates More than Expected, Raising Concerns Over FX-Denominated Debt

Turkey’s Central Bank cut the policy rate by a full percentage point to 8.75% this week in a bid to lower the cost of domestic borrowing, but analysts warn the move could pile additional pressure on the country’s corporate sector by making it harder to pay back foreign currency debt.

23 Apr 2020

GCC States’ Deficits Set to Rise Sharply Due to Pandemic Disruption - Fitch

The twin shock of coronavirus and plummeting oil prices have put the brakes on global growth. Combined with widespread outflows, a strengthening US dollar and a global recession, emerging markets face an unprecedented flurry of headwinds. According to a recent report from Fitch, weaker rated GCC sovereigns may be vulnerable to a downgrade in the current market conditions.

23 Apr 2020

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