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Economics and Markets

Turkey Delays Structural Reforms in Favour of Credit Fuelled Recovery – Chatham House

Despite a strong recovery since the economic crisis of 2018, Turkey is not out of the woods yet. Binging on cheap credit may have pulled the economy out of recession for now, stimulating key sectors and driving consumption, but it leaves the lira vulnerable, according to a recent report by Fadi Hakura, Turkey Specialist and Manager of the Turkey Project at Chatham House.

20 Feb 2020

Ashmore: Quantifying EM Sovereign Fair Value

It is tough to beat the long-term risk-adjusted returns of Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign debt. The asset class has consistently delivered steady performance even during poor macroeconomic environments for EM economies. On a forward-looking basis, a simple quantitative analysis demonstrates investors receive six to ten times more spread over US Treasury than the actual default risk embedded in…

19 Feb 2020

Global Growth Forecast Marked Down Amid Lingering Coronavirus Threat – Moody’s

The ratings agency expects G-20 economies to grow at just 2.4% in 2020, with a pick-up to 2.8% next year.

17 Feb 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Concerns about the coronavirus are likely to keep EM under pressure, as the ultimate impact is still unknown. Global growth was already at risk before the virus hit and now the outlook is even cloudier.

17 Feb 2020

Angola’s Minister of Finance on Privatisations, Following Through on Free Trade, and Managing the Tricky Balance between Economic Diversification and Oil Dependence

While João Lourenço’s government continues to dominate the headlines - for highly visible corruption indictments against his predecessor José Eduardo dos Santos, his family, and associates - Vera Daves de Sousa, Angola’s young and resolutely optimistic Minister of Finance, is working hard behind the scenes to chart a more financially sustainable path for the country following years of economic…

13 Feb 2020

Securitisations Could Help South Africa-Based Financials Overcome Ratings Challenges and Liquidity Issues

South African lenders could lean on securitisations to help address credit ratings pressures and a lack of liquidity in the banking sector, but key bottlenecks need to be addressed by regulators before the sector can really take advantage of them, according to Gill Raine, a senior policy advisor at The Association for Savings & Investment South Africa (ASISA) and veteran banker.

12 Feb 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk-off sentiment intensified last week. Near-term, we think EM is likely to remain under pressure until the full impact of the coronavirus is better known. On top of this, there is broad-based dollar strength. Besides the safe haven flows, the US outlook remains very strong. Taken in conjunction with the recent weak data out of Germany, France, and Japan, it’s clear that the US economy…

10 Feb 2020

Prospect of Early Romanian Election Sparks ‘Benevolent’ Market Reaction – ING

A successful no-confidence motion against Romania’s government has raised the prospect of early elections and may usher in a period of political instability, but the market has reacted relatively well according to ING emerging market strategist Trieu Pham.

7 Feb 2020

MENA PMIs Slumped in January as Short-Term Volatility Weighs on Sentiment

PMI indicators – a rough barometer of business sentiment – from some of MENA’s largest countries slumped in January as global volatility weighed on the region’s economies.

7 Feb 2020

Risk-Off Sentiment ‘Relatively Limited’ in Response to Coronavirus – Blackrock

As a growing number of cases of coronavirus are confirmed outside of China markets have become shaky.

6 Feb 2020

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