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Economics and Markets

SWOT Analysis: Privatisation and Domestic Issuances Driving Markets in Brazil

Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the Brazilian market following a research trip to the region.

22 Nov 2019

Nigeria: Rising Policy Risk, Institutional Weakness Weighs on Economy

Nigeria’s recent attempt to retrospectively tax international oil companies was seen by many as an attempt to desperately plug gaps in the country’s budget. But the government’s strained relationship with the country’s largest revenue generating sector is merely a symptom of much deeper issues: patchy revenue generation, ineffective institutions, and rising policy risk.

20 Nov 2019

What to Expect from Argentina in 2020?

Argentina celebrated the first round of Presidential elections in late October. Investors largely characterized the vote as a kind of referendum between a continuation of market friendly economic reforms by incumbent Mauricio Macri or a comeback to a more interventionist approach by challenging Alberto Fernández, who was leading a Peronist coalition – but there is good reason to believe things…

19 Nov 2019

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.

18 Nov 2019

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal…

11 Nov 2019

As Contempt for Experts and Data Rises with Populism, US Economic Data Gains Focus

The rise of populism has engulfed countries across both developed and emerging markets, placing renewed pressure on state institutions to stay independent – often in the face of overt harassment from strongmen leaders. In the US, whose economic data informs the decisions and forecasts of finance professionals worldwide, the President’s cavalier attitude to facts raises questions regarding the…

8 Nov 2019

Latin American Democratic Institutions Are Under Attack – Should Investors Worry?

October 2019 was a shockingly turbulent month for South America, but what does it mean for international investor sentiment about the region, asks John Price, Managing Director at Americas Market Intelligence.

5 Nov 2019

Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead

EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones. For instance, South Africa, Hong Kong, Argentina, and Chile…

4 Nov 2019

Brazil: Focus of Debate on Public Spending Needs to Shift

There is often a lack of consensus among economists when it comes to public policy recommendations. While sowing confusion among the ordinary citizens, who cannot tell which side is “right”, this debate is an important element for the functioning of democracy and is healthy for public policy planning, argues Zeina Latif.

1 Nov 2019

Ashmore: Low EM Inflation - The Gift that Keeps on Giving

With the volume of negative-yielding developed market assets shooting past the USD15tn mark, inflation globally on the wane and downside risks for the Dollar rising, returns for EM fixed income investors are looking to be as strong as ever, argue Ashmore's Jan Dehn and Gustavo Medeiros.

31 Oct 2019

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