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Economics and Markets

PMI Data Indicates Difficult Start to the Year for Kenyan Private Sector

February marked another difficult month for Kenya’s economy, with fresh PMI data from IHS Markit and Stanbic Bank indicating a second consecutive month of falling business activity.

9 Mar 2020

Credit Growth in Mexico Stays in Single-Digit Territory for Ninth Straight Month

Credit growth in Mexico in January hit 5.3% in nominal terms and 2% in real terms according to the latest data published by the Bank of Mexico, making it the ninth straight month of single-digit private sector credit growth on record and adding to a growing and worrying list of indicators signalling an economic slowdown.

9 Mar 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

Risk-off sentiment continues to build as the coronavirus spreads and so EM is likely to remain under pressure. Oil prices are down sharply after Saudi Arabia and Russia were unable to agree on output cuts, leading the former to flood the market with low cost oil. There will be a lot of collateral damage, including EM producers, DM producers, and US shale producers.

9 Mar 2020

Supply and Demand Shocks From COVID19 Could Push Global Economy into Recession

The markets might have priced in a 1H supply shock, but not 10-20% global infection rates, argue RenCap’s analysts, while Moody’s once again has lowered its global growth forecast for 2020.

9 Mar 2020

Yes Bank Taken Over by RBI in Dramatic Move, Highlighting Continued Banking Sector Woes in India

Yes Bank Ltd, India’s fourth-largest privately-owned lender, had its board superseded by the Reserve Bank of India this week, an extraordinary move that sent the company’s stocks and bonds crashing and a further sign of the country’s continued difficulty resolving poor bank balance sheets. If the RBI gets the resolution right, however, it could catalyse a swift reversal in sentiment that has long…

6 Mar 2020

As Fear Takes Over, Markets Should Take Refuge in Buying Opportunities that Epidemics Create – William Blair

The last week of February saw markets end at levels not seen since May 2019 and some of the largest asset sell-offs in nearly 10 years. But while it’s always difficult to predict market behaviour, participants should gain some comfort from the fact that market reactions to previous epidemics have been relatively short-lived and generally create more buying opportunities, say emerging market debt…

6 Mar 2020

Ashmore: Chinese Bonds Deliver in Bear Markets

Chinese bonds tend to perform better than other EM local currency bonds during bouts of risk aversion, making them – perhaps in spite of, not despite, fears over the spread of coronavirus – a de facto safe haven, argues Ashmore's EM bond guru Jan Dehn.

5 Mar 2020

India to Counter Impact of Coronavirus Through Renewed Credit Growth – IDFC Mutual Fund

The Fed’s decision to cut rates on Tuesday by a further 50bps in response to the coronavirus marked the latest in a series of strong policy responses from monetary authorities and governments worldwide. According to Suyash Choudhary, Head of Fixed Income at IDFC Mutual Fund, India looks likely to follow the US in utilising additional fiscal and monetary measures.

5 Mar 2020

DAE Recommends Buying its Own Dip in Bond Repurchasing Boost

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) has touted its bond repurchasing programme in a bid to shore up demand for its outstanding notes, a move that could be replicated by other regional issuers seeing a drop-off in credit demand.

3 Mar 2020

Volatility Could See Gulf Issuers Shun Bonds for Loan Markets

With spreads widening and bond pricing on the rise, some Gulf-based issuers are looking to maintain a holding pattern until market volatility subsides, while others could lean on the region’s large lenders for funding.

3 Mar 2020

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