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Macro

Mexico 2021 Growth Revised Down, Higher Deficit Expected

The finance ministry forced to price in the economic damage from the pandemic into its forecast for an economy that was already in recession.

6 Apr 2020

Fitch Downgrades Three Nigerian Banks Due to Pressure from COVID-19, Oil Price

The three highest-rated Nigerian banks – Zenith, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTB), and United Bank for Africa (UBA) have been downgraded by Fitch.

30 Mar 2020

COVID-19 Could Restart US-China Trade Tensions – Control Risks

With the US likely to fall into a recession combined with widespread social disruption caused by the lockdown, Trump’s re-election this November appears uncertain. Far from soothing tensions between the US and China, the pandemic has heightened them.

27 Mar 2020

Kenyan Bond Yields Spike Due to Pandemic, Locust Disruption – Cytonn Investments

As the COVID-19 pandemic wracks emerging and developed economies alike, market have gone into overdrive with shares and bonds both suffering heavy sell-offs as investors flee to the safety of US dollars. Kenya’s local currency treasury bonds (TBs) and outstanding Eurobonds have been no exception to this trend.

26 Mar 2020

UAE Bank to See Asset Quality Weaken – Fitch Ratings

The impact of the coronavirus is being felt by countries and sectors worldwide, but the UAE is particularly sensitive as key sectors like oil & gas and logistics feel the disruption more severely. For the country’s banking sector, the pandemic looks set to place additional pressure on banks’ credit profiles by reducing asset quality, according to a note from Fitch Ratings.

24 Mar 2020

Which SSA Economies are Most Vulnerable to COVID-19?

Africa appears so far – at least according to official statistics – to have contained the spread of COVID-19, with SSA reporting fewer than 300 confirmed cases. But this does not mean the region will be able to ride out the storm and avoid the economic and health impact seen elsewhere.

24 Mar 2020

Do Current Valuations Compensate Investors for Increased Default Risk?

As COVID-19 and the ongoing oil price spat between Riyadh and Moscow continues to wreak havoc on markets across the world, the spreads on high yield assets in both EM and DM have widened significantly. With many companies seeing their revenues take a beating at countries go into lockdown, and with many sovereigns juggling their need for fiscal stimulus with already lopsided public finances, Iain…

23 Mar 2020

As Flight to Safety Escalates, Fiscal Stimulus Prospects Vary Widely Across Emerging Markets

Total spread widening for the EMBI Global Index has reached a remarkable 286bp, according to ING, more than the 241bp monthly change seen at the peak of the 2008 crisis. Fiscal injections will be required across the board, but continued access to the debt capital markets will be instrumental for countries to pursue fiscal easing to soften the blow from the economic slowdown.

20 Mar 2020

Latin America’s Governments Rush Through Stimulus Measures to Counter Pandemic Impact

Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Colombia have announced urgent fiscal stimulus measures to compliment monetary policy moves introduced over the past two weeks to sooth markets after a huge spike in volatility.

20 Mar 2020

Central Bank of Kenya Likely to Cut Rates by 25-50bps – Sterling Capital

Ahead of the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Kenya on Monday 23rd March, Sterling Capital predicts a rate cut of 25-50bps.

20 Mar 2020

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