Nigeria’s recent attempt to retrospectively tax international oil companies was seen by many as an attempt to desperately plug gaps in the country’s budget. But the government’s strained relationship with the country’s largest revenue generating sector is merely a symptom of much deeper issues: patchy revenue generation, ineffective institutions, and rising policy risk.
20 Nov 2019
Argentina celebrated the first round of Presidential elections in late October. Investors largely characterized the vote as a kind of referendum between a continuation of market friendly economic reforms by incumbent Mauricio Macri or a comeback to a more interventionist approach by challenging Alberto Fernández, who was leading a Peronist coalition – but there is good reason to believe things…
19 Nov 2019
EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.
18 Nov 2019
Since its formation in 1967, ASEAN has followed a path of gentle integration. But despite the bloc’s avowed intention to pursue financial integration, outlined in the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF), the industry remains fragmented across the region and riddled with regulatory obstacles.
14 Nov 2019
In 2020, Latin America’s largest markets are largely going be to characterised by picky investors, persistently low yields, infrastructure development, LIBOR-related woes, and socio-political upheaval, according to dozens of bankers, investors, lawyers and credit ratings agencies who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent trip to the region. We’ve summarised the top five themes likely to drive the…
12 Nov 2019
EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal…
11 Nov 2019
The rise of populism has engulfed countries across both developed and emerging markets, placing renewed pressure on state institutions to stay independent – often in the face of overt harassment from strongmen leaders. In the US, whose economic data informs the decisions and forecasts of finance professionals worldwide, the President’s cavalier attitude to facts raises questions regarding the…
8 Nov 2019
Kenya currently faces an infrastructure financing gap of USD4bn, according to data from the World Bank, with the government’s recent borrowing spree unlikely to plug it. Bonds & Loans hosted an exclusive breakfast roundtable discussion with bankers, developers, and investors to explore the bottlenecks preventing local institutions from investing Kenyan money in Kenyan projects.
6 Nov 2019
October 2019 was a shockingly turbulent month for South America, but what does it mean for international investor sentiment about the region, asks John Price, Managing Director at Americas Market Intelligence.
5 Nov 2019
EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones. For instance, South Africa, Hong Kong, Argentina, and Chile…
4 Nov 2019