Macro
Private Credit in Latin America: Helping SMEs Transition to Corporate Finance
The asset class that first came to prominence in the region several years ago is resurfacing in a big way, driven by investors’ hunger for yield and diversification, helping SMEs and corporates source alternative funding in the meantime. But questions are being asked about the sustainability of private debt were the global environment to deteriorate and liquidity to drain from the market.
28 Nov 2019
Colombia: Latin America’s Shining Star Dims amid Tax Law Setback
As the wave of social unrest spreads across Andes, investors are becoming wary of risks surrounding Colombia. In late October, the government presented a revised tax reform proposal to Congress after the initial bill was overturned due to procedural failings. While the new proposal is expected to pass, questions remain over the fiscal impact of the reform – and what it means for the outlook in…
26 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM came under pressure last week as doubts rose whether the Phase One deal can be completed. Also, the dollar was able to get some traction against the majors as the eurozone, UK, and Japan all reported weaker than expected November PMI readings. Divergences in the growth outlook and interest rate differentials should remain in the dollar’s favor. Furthermore, the weaker global growth outlook…
25 Nov 2019
SWOT Analysis: Privatisation and Domestic Issuances Driving Markets in Brazil
Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the Brazilian market following a research trip to the region.
22 Nov 2019
Nigeria: Rising Policy Risk, Institutional Weakness Weighs on Economy
Nigeria’s recent attempt to retrospectively tax international oil companies was seen by many as an attempt to desperately plug gaps in the country’s budget. But the government’s strained relationship with the country’s largest revenue generating sector is merely a symptom of much deeper issues: patchy revenue generation, ineffective institutions, and rising policy risk.
20 Nov 2019
What to Expect from Argentina in 2020?
Argentina celebrated the first round of Presidential elections in late October. Investors largely characterized the vote as a kind of referendum between a continuation of market friendly economic reforms by incumbent Mauricio Macri or a comeback to a more interventionist approach by challenging Alberto Fernández, who was leading a Peronist coalition – but there is good reason to believe things…
19 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.
18 Nov 2019
ASEAN: The Long Road Towards A Cross-Border Funding Market
Since its formation in 1967, ASEAN has followed a path of gentle integration. But despite the bloc’s avowed intention to pursue financial integration, outlined in the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF), the industry remains fragmented across the region and riddled with regulatory obstacles.
14 Nov 2019
Off the Record: Low Rates Supporting Issuance Volumes in Latin America as Libor Transition Looms
In 2020, Latin America’s largest markets are largely going be to characterised by picky investors, persistently low yields, infrastructure development, LIBOR-related woes, and socio-political upheaval, according to dozens of bankers, investors, lawyers and credit ratings agencies who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent trip to the region. We’ve summarised the top five themes likely to drive the…
12 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal…
11 Nov 2019