Macro
Kenya’s Rate Cap is Dead, but Private Credit Growth May Remain Elusive for Some Time
The introduction of the interest rate cap in 2016 was intended to enhance access to credit for retail customers and Kenya’s large SME sector. Instead, the effect was very much the opposite. But despite the recent repeal of the cap, the path back towards strong private sector credit growth may be more challenging than it may first appear.
30 Jan 2020
Pakistan’s External Balance Improved More than Expected Under IMF Programme – JP Morgan Securities
The USD6bn loan to Pakistan approved by the IMF in mid-2019 has gone some way to helping stabilise the country’s economy in the face of domestic and external headwinds.
29 Jan 2020
Geopolitical Policy Uncertainty, Asset Quality Deterioration, Vulnerability to Fickle Investor Sentiment Weigh on EM Banks – Especially in Turkey
Global and domestic tensions that could threaten policy continuity, asset quality deterioration, and shifting emerging market investor sentiment remain to remain the dominant risks for emerging market banks in 2020, says S&P Global. Turkey remains particularly vulnerable.
27 Jan 2020
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
The spread of the coronavirus continues and is likely to weigh on risk assets and EM. Most markets in Emerging Asia are closed for all or part of this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday. China has extended the holiday until February 2 as it struggles to contain the virus. The Asian region is just starting to recover from the global trade tensions, and now it must cope with what is likely to…
27 Jan 2020
Mexico 2020 Growth Forecast Revised Down Amid Frail Business Confidence
Inflation and investment are expected to remain steady, with potential upside from the manufacturing sector if USMCA is finalized, Banorte analysis predicts.
27 Jan 2020
Brazil Enjoys Record High Debenture Issuance Despite Regulatory Constraints
With an infrastructure gap estimated at USD50bn annually, Brazil is falling behind many of its regional peers. As the state pulls back from financing projects, private investors are ready and willing to step in – but many tell Bonds & Loans they need a steady and enabling regulatory environment to find their footing in the sector.
24 Jan 2020
Kuwait’s 2020/21 Budget Reveals Record Fiscal Deficit – Marmore
Kuwait has published its budget proposal for the fiscal year 2021, which reveals that the nation’s deficit will climb for the sixth consecutive year in a row to reach a record high.
24 Jan 2020
Uzbekistan Plans Ambitious IPO Schedule
Following the death of President Islam Karimov in 2016, Uzbekistan’s new President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has set the country on a long but necessary path to reform. The relaxation of foreign exchange markets, release of political prisoners, and the sovereign’s debut Eurobond issuance have all since highlighted reform efforts in one of Asia’s most tightly controlled markets. Now, as the government…
21 Jan 2020
Tepid Macro Backdrop To Weigh on South African Banks in 2020 – UBS
Despite a relatively positive outlook for EM banking sectors loan growth in 2020, a troubling macro backdrop will continue to weigh on the sector in South Africa throughout 2020, according to a recent report from UBS.
17 Jan 2020
Brazil, India, Indonesia and China to Drive EM Bank Loans in 2020
UBS analysts predict a strong rebound in credit impulse for EM lenders, with earnings forecast to rise to their highest levels since 2012.
16 Jan 2020