Macro
As Contempt for Experts and Data Rises with Populism, US Economic Data Gains Focus
The rise of populism has engulfed countries across both developed and emerging markets, placing renewed pressure on state institutions to stay independent – often in the face of overt harassment from strongmen leaders. In the US, whose economic data informs the decisions and forecasts of finance professionals worldwide, the President’s cavalier attitude to facts raises questions regarding the…
8 Nov 2019
Kenya: Capacity Building Vital to Local Investment in Energy & Infrastructure
Kenya currently faces an infrastructure financing gap of USD4bn, according to data from the World Bank, with the government’s recent borrowing spree unlikely to plug it. Bonds & Loans hosted an exclusive breakfast roundtable discussion with bankers, developers, and investors to explore the bottlenecks preventing local institutions from investing Kenyan money in Kenyan projects.
6 Nov 2019
Latin American Democratic Institutions Are Under Attack – Should Investors Worry?
October 2019 was a shockingly turbulent month for South America, but what does it mean for international investor sentiment about the region, asks John Price, Managing Director at Americas Market Intelligence.
5 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones. For instance, South Africa, Hong Kong, Argentina, and Chile…
4 Nov 2019
Brazil: Focus of Debate on Public Spending Needs to Shift
There is often a lack of consensus among economists when it comes to public policy recommendations. While sowing confusion among the ordinary citizens, who cannot tell which side is “right”, this debate is an important element for the functioning of democracy and is healthy for public policy planning, argues Zeina Latif.
1 Nov 2019
Ashmore: Low EM Inflation - The Gift that Keeps on Giving
With the volume of negative-yielding developed market assets shooting past the USD15tn mark, inflation globally on the wane and downside risks for the Dollar rising, returns for EM fixed income investors are looking to be as strong as ever, argue Ashmore's Jan Dehn and Gustavo Medeiros.
31 Oct 2019
UAE Reforms May Lead to an Identity Crisis Amongst Free Zones
With various emirates looking to make themselves more competitive, drive local employment and revive stagnating sectors, UAE authorities have through a series of new laws tried to make it easier for businesses to integrate into the local economy and secure more foreign investment. The moves, however, raise difficult questions about the country’s reliance on free zones, and the future of the UAE…
22 Oct 2019
Subdued Loan Activity, Low Rates Bring DFIs and Commercial Banks into Closer Competition in EM
With global loan volumes at their lowest levels since 2012 and persistently depressed global interest rates the prevailing norm, commercial banks operating in emerging markets are increasingly competing for deals with multilateral development finance institutions – the latest sign of how an abundance of liquidity is skewing markets and blurring the lines between financial market stakeholders.
18 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit. The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic. The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.…
14 Oct 2019
On the Ground and Off the Record: GCC’s Credit Markets Brace for Global Macro Headwinds
Despite the challenges posed by falling revenues that have become endemic to oil-dependent Middle East economies as of late, the region’s finance markets have seen 2019 as a largely positive year. But the outlook is far less certain in 2020, according to a number of regional and international investors, bankers, advisors and corporate chiefs who spoke with Bonds & Loans on a recent research trip…
11 Oct 2019