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It cannot have escaped investors’ attention that stock markets are surging and spreads are tightening. Yet, the world has not looked as bad as this in political and economic terms for a very long time. Asset prices seem divorced from fundamental realities. How and why does this happen and what does it mean for investment? This short note aims to provide a brief perspective on these questions.
9 Jun 2020
Risk-on was the theme last week and that is likely to continue this week. That’s good news for EM, which has benefited from improved market sentiment. Commodity prices continue to recover, even though the data out of mainland China remain mixed. The Fed is expected to reaffirm its current policy stance when the FOMC meets this week.
8 Jun 2020
EM FX had a solid week, helped by overall weakness in the dollar. Trump’s threats against China turned out to be much ado about nothing and so risk assets ended the week on a strong note. This week, markets will be looking for some sort of response from China but quite honestly, Trump did so little that we may not see anything beyond some snarky Tweets from the Global Times. For now, the…
1 Jun 2020
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is upping its borrowing requirements by more than 53% to INR12tn for the financial year, but it's unlikely to be enough to finance the government's ambitious stimulus programme.
12 May 2020
The Turkish lira continues to tumble. This feels like a rerun of the last lira crisis back in August 2018. Surprisingly little has changed fundamentally in the nearly two years that have passed, as officials have largely refrained from taking any significant actions except those that make it even harder to invest in Turkey. Turkey used to be the darlings of EM. Now, we fear it will end up being…
11 May 2020
EM assets are coming off a good week, but storm clouds lie ahead. The economic data last week for unequivocally bad, and this week is unlikely to bring much relief. With risk-off sentiment picking up, we expect EM to come under pressure this week.
4 May 2020
Last year saw euro-denominated credit overtake US-dollar denominated credit for emerging European economies, standing at EUR377bn by end-2019, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The growth of euro-denominated credit outside the euro area slowed by 6% overall, however.
30 Apr 2020
The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ Emerging Markets (EM) countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time. This behaviour has been ubiquitous in past crises and the 2020 Coronavirus Crisis is no exception. EM countries have experienced indiscriminate outflows,…
24 Apr 2020
The UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) is a global initiative that promotes responsible investment. Bonds & Loans spoke to Eduardo Atehortua, the Director of PRI for Latin America, about promoting sustainable investing among the region’s governments, the challenges associated with the “social” part of ESG in Latin America, and whether ESG-linked securities will prove to be among the…
23 Apr 2020
With 38 lenders catering to just over 52 million people, and despite a series of mergers, the Kenyan banking sector appears overbanked. Further consolidation is expected in the years to come, which could result in a number of larger, better-capitalised, more stable banks, according to Cytonn Investments.
22 Apr 2020