Last week’s dovish tilt by the ECB should have been EM-supportive. However, global trade tensions remain high despite the rebooted US-China talks in Shanghai this week and so we remain bearish on EM. China reports July PMI readings, and the first glimpse of the world’s second-largest economy in H2 are expected to show continued softness.
29 Jul 2019
EM FX was mixed last week despite the dovish signals from the Fed’s Powell. Weak data from emerging Asia support the notion that the ongoing US-China trade war will continue to weigh on global growth and trade, which is negative for EM. We remain cautious on EM, especially given our less dovish take on the Fed.
15 Jul 2019
Bonds & Loans spoke to Felipe Bomfim, Director at Patria Infrastructure, on pensions reform, festering growth of local capital markets and why the glass is always half-full for investors doing business in Brazil.
11 Jul 2019
Donald Trump’s willingness to replace long-term global political planning in favour of short-term political opportunism marks a departure from 70-odd years of US foreign policy. In a nutshell, after a long line of US presidents worked hard to build global political capital and the Trump Administration has now decided to spend it. What does this mean for investors and policy makers in other…
9 Jul 2019
EM FX remains vulnerable to ongoing global trade tensions. It may also suffer from the recalibration of market expectations regarding Fed policy. We remain negative on EM near-term until the outlook for both of these major drivers becomes clearer.
8 Jul 2019
It’s been a slow year for investors eyeing distressed debt opportunities. With distressed funds worldwide securing substantially lower volumes than in 2018, and a potential reversal in US interest rate rises on the horizon, many investors currently view conventional strategies more favourably. Against a backdrop of continued volatility and a growing number of warning signs in both developed and…
4 Jul 2019
EM and risk assets should get a near-term boost from the good news coming out of the G20 meeting. Still, we caution against getting too optimistic on EM. Current US tariffs on Chinese goods will remain in place, which will continue to act as a headwind on global growth and trade.
1 Jul 2019
Hadley Peer Marshall, Managing Director of Infrastructure Debt at Brookfield speaks with Bonds & Loans about managing local currency constraints when investing in infrastructure in Latin America, and new sectors generating investment opportunities.
28 Jun 2019
A closer look at the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats influencing the investment and debt capital markets climate in the GCC economies.
27 Jun 2019
Ashmore's Global Head of Research Jan Dehn investigates the correlation between "headline risk" - both in traditional press and social media - and return on investment in emerging markets, concluding that, for all its faults, the media still serves an important function.
24 Jun 2019