Asia Pacific
The War on Trade: How US Protectionism Threatens Global Stability
The US has taken unilateral action to start a potential trade war with China. This is a policy mistake of gigantic proportions resting on a misunderstanding about how open economies work. The direction of US economic policy contrasts sharply with Chinese policies and we expect only a measured, proportional and targeted response from China, which will remain open to deeper trading ties with third…
27 Mar 2018
CASE STUDY: YES Bank Debuts USD1bn Tranche of MTN Programme on GSM of India INX
Notwithstanding the impending FOMC meeting and other headwinds, India’s YES Bank powered ahead with the largest debut issuance by an Indian FI that also became first to be listed on the recently established INX.
2 Mar 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: Frontier Sovereign Rating Model for Q1 2018
Brown Brothers Harriman: produced the following ratings model to assess relative sovereign risk in Frontier Markets. A country’s score directly reflects its creditworthiness and underlying ability to service its external debt obligations.
15 Feb 2018
Standardisation and Harmonisation Will Propel the Sukuk Market Forward
Almost 20 years ago, global fixed income investors scarcely heard of the word ‘sukuk’, let alone understood the asset’s unique structural features or benefits. Much has changed since, with the global sukuk issuance topping USD74.8bn at the end of 2016. But with the asset class’ impressive growth being hamstrung by liquidity shortages and a lack of global standards, the development and…
14 Feb 2018
The Spectre of Communism Haunts Vietnam’s Credit Market Despite Solid Growth
Vietnam has become one of the most stable and high-performing economies in Asia over the past decade, providing a cheaper alternative for global production and manufacturing giants to the resurgent China. As the country looks to develop and further open its capital markets, unsustainable credit growth and the burden of funding the Party machine could bring a dark twist to this tale of prosperity.
26 Jan 2018
2018 Outlook for Emerging and Frontier Markets
2017 has been an amazingly profitable year for investors in emerging and frontier markets. As uncertainty takes hold, driven by a hawkish Fed outlook and China's slowdown, Mark Mobius, the outgoing Chairman of Franklin Templeton's Emerging Market Group, takes a parting shot at predicting what the coming year has in store for the markets.
12 Jan 2018
CASE STUDY: YES Bank Double Dips with USD400mn Dual Currency Syndication
YES Bank opened a gateway into the Japanese market with a dual-currency syndication that attracted an unusually high number of Taiwanese lenders.
12 Dec 2017
Emerging Markets FX Technical Picture: How Far Can This Correction Go?
How far can this EM FX correction go? Since mid-November, the greenback has been broadly softer due to a variety of factors. EM FX has taken advantage of this, and the top EM performers are ZAR (+5.5%), MXN (+3.8%), and RUB (+3%). TRY has been noticeably lagging, -1.4% since November 15. Many EM currencies are starting to bump up against key chart points, and so the dollar may finally get some…
1 Dec 2017
China’s Funding Options for Belt & Road: Will Emerging Markets Make Hay or Get Shut Out?
Unperturbed by global economic woes, geopolitical tensions and the rise of populism in the West, China is committing itself to the largest infrastructure development project since the Great Wall. But the costs of the grand project are expected to run into hundreds of billions of dollars and, with the Chinese banking sector already over-leveraged, questions arise over its ability to finance…
21 Nov 2017
A China Resurgence is Good News for Metals
Keith Spence, a long time China outbound investments expert, offers his views on China's effect on metals outlook.
17 Oct 2017