Currencies
Capital Outflows Threaten China’s Transition to Demand-Driven Model
With official agencies admitting to US$540bn in capital outflows since June, and independent estimates standing at twice that, clouds are gathering over the Chinese economy as it transitions from supply to demand-driven model. But some analysts remain upbeat about the country’s long-term prospects.
6 Jan 2017
Mexico Central Bank Intervenes as Peso Drops Amid Trump Woes
After several painful weeks in the currency markets, Mexico’s Central Bank decided to step in and prop the peso, which sank to record lows amid fears of US President-elect Donald Trump’s protectionist policies.
6 Jan 2017
Venezuela Raises Eyebrows with Surprise US$5bn International Bond
First sovereign issuance by the ailing Latin American economy since 2011 was snapped up by the country’s own Central Bank, but the deal’s non-market nature raised concerns for investors and regulators alike.
3 Jan 2017
BRAZIL: Sharpening the Instruments to Break the Vicious Circle
No crisis lasts forever. But the present one in Brazil is testing the patience of everyone. GDP has contracted now for seven straight quarters, after a 2014 that was largely lethargic in terms of output. Nor is there any discussion of an inflection point to a cyclical upturn in activity. The only thing on the horizon is economic stabilisation.
21 Dec 2016
Volatility Subsides but Hedging Products Still on the Menu in Russia
Peering two years back in time, the Russian economy today is barely recognisable. As the recession eases and volatility subsides the fortunes of the country’s corporates continue to improve, and the country’s banks look to new avenues to boost profits and keep margins at attractive levels
21 Dec 2016
Turkey’s Corporate Debt Rise Spells Bumpy Ride for 2017
For 13 years president Erdogan’s rule was driven and supported by Turkey’s strong economic growth. But as the economy shrinks for the first time since 2009, corporate sector debt spiraling out of control, and its currency plummeting, observers are questioning whether the state-wide clampdown on opposition parties and enforced easing are really the solution to Turkey’s woes.
16 Dec 2016
Top Dealmaker: Demetrio Salorio, Societe Generale Corporate & Investment Banking
Markets in 2016 kicked off much like they appear to be winding down: with many unknowns ahead. Nevertheless, that uncertainty has bookended a record year for debt capital markets globally, as low interest rates and quantitative easing sent money into new regions (particularly emerging markets) and asset classes (such as European high yield), enabling borrowers to capitalise on reduced costs of…
28 Nov 2016
Analysts: Turkey Rate Hike Not Enough to Stabilise Currency
Turkey’s Central Bank pressed on with a 50bp interest rate hike this week despite persistent criticism from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Analysts believe the move won’t be enough to stem the currency’s decline, with further rate hikes expected – which could provoke Erdogan’s intervention, hurting investment.
25 Nov 2016
Weak Demand for Nigeria Bond Signals Continued Market Discontent with Currency Controls
As low oil-prices continue to devastate the Nigerian economy, painfully low levels of participation seen in last Wednesday’s sovereign issuance once again highlighted the need to free up the African country’s capital and FX markets before real progress can be made.
22 Nov 2016
Malaysian NDF Ban Reinforcement Puts Investors on Back-Foot
Malaysia’s Central Bank recently began reinforcing a ban on offshore Malaysian ringgit trades in a bid to improve monitoring and management of an already battered currency. Some analysts believe the move, which comes at a time when EM sentiment is already quite fragile, may threaten foreign fixed income investment and FDI in the country.
18 Nov 2016