Macro
Downgrade of South African Sovereign Now 'Probable' – Nedbank Analysts
As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic collides with a crash in the oil price and a broader deceleration of growth, the South Africa sovereign looks set to struggle. According to Jones Gondo, Senior Credit Analyst and Nthulleng Mphahlele, Analyst at Nedbank, the risk of the big three rating agencies downgrading South Africa has been significantly heightened.
19 Mar 2020
EM Outflows at Near-Record Level since January– IIF
The cumulative negative impact of the coronavirus-related shocks on capital volumes going into EMs has surpassed lows seen during the Taper Tantrum and the peak of the global financial crisis, latest numbers posted by the IIF suggest.
18 Mar 2020
Debt Capital Markets Are Crucial to Success of Saudi Vision 2030, but Some Bankers Say it's Underutilised
Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plan to transform the economy and diversify away from oil production, has seen the country develop the largest project pipeline in the region. But the government’s apparent reluctance to raise funds through the debt capital markets risks undermining Vision 2030, according senior investment bankers based in the region.
18 Mar 2020
Do Central Banks Need New Guidelines Around How They Communicate?
The past 20 years has seen central banks assume far more prominence in day-to-day economic discourse and decision-making than many are likely to appreciate, and alongside that huge transformation came an equally significant shift in how these emboldened titans communicate with the market. But when it comes to managing the market’s expectations, arguably the fundamental role central banks play…
17 Mar 2020
BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead
Market sentiment is likely to open this week on an upswing after the Fed’s emergency rate cut and expanded QE were announced Sunday afternoon local time. Yet as we have seen time and again this past couple of weeks, added stimulus has had little lasting impact on markets as the virus numbers continue to worsen. Europe is now reporting more daily cases than China did at its peak. We remain…
16 Mar 2020
Corporate Bond Meltdown Could Expose Debt Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets Despite Coordinated Easing
The ongoing sell-off could raise fears over a global corporate debt bubble, with EM companies particularly vulnerable as uncertainty over the extent and timeline of the COVID19 epidemic persists, IIF analysis explain in a recent research update.
16 Mar 2020
Turkish Banking Sector Outlook Improving - ING
Following strong performance last year, many in the Turkish banking sector are looking ahead at 2020 with optimism, according to Oleksiy Soroka, Senior High Yield Credit Strategist at ING.
12 Mar 2020
Lebanon’s Default Barely Heard Amid Global Markets Rumbling and Tumbling
It came not with a bang, but a whimper. The Middle Eastern country’s failure to pay USD1.2bn on its March bond appears to put the ball in creditors’ court. But as coronavirus-linked turmoil and the collapse of oil prices dominates the headlines, Lebanon seems to be way down the pecking order on the elongating list of investors priorities.
11 Mar 2020
Fiscal Stimulus Required to Support Monetary Easing as Asian PMIs Drop – PineBridge
As global central banks react to the COVID-19 linked global economic slowdown, monetary policy tools may no longer be sufficient to support growth, PineBridge warns in a new analysis.
11 Mar 2020
Downgrade Would Lead to Exponential Growth in Borrowing Costs – Rand Merchant Bank
The possibility of a Moody’ downgrading the South African sovereign has long been under discussion. But according to Ettienne Le Roux, Chief Economist and Elena Ilkova, Credit Research Analyst at Rand Merchant Bank, a rating downgrade could provoke a much more severe reaction than the simply exclusion of the country’s debt from global indices.
9 Mar 2020