Global
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal…
11 Nov 2019
As Contempt for Experts and Data Rises with Populism, US Economic Data Gains Focus
The rise of populism has engulfed countries across both developed and emerging markets, placing renewed pressure on state institutions to stay independent – often in the face of overt harassment from strongmen leaders. In the US, whose economic data informs the decisions and forecasts of finance professionals worldwide, the President’s cavalier attitude to facts raises questions regarding the…
8 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones. For instance, South Africa, Hong Kong, Argentina, and Chile…
4 Nov 2019
Ashmore: Low EM Inflation - The Gift that Keeps on Giving
With the volume of negative-yielding developed market assets shooting past the USD15tn mark, inflation globally on the wane and downside risks for the Dollar rising, returns for EM fixed income investors are looking to be as strong as ever, argue Ashmore's Jan Dehn and Gustavo Medeiros.
31 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM has been on a good run but this week will be a big test. Brexit uncertainty may finally end. Or it may not. A delay would be positive for EM, whilst a potential hard Brexit would be negative. The Fed meets Wednesday and key US data will be reported during the week, culminating with the jobs report Friday. The dollar has been on its back foot as September data have come in weaker than expected,…
28 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
We are beginning to become more constructive on EM. The main trigger for some optimism is the shifting US-China dynamic. In our view, the partial trade deal reveals weakness on the part of the US. Reports suggest China will begin pushing for all existing tariffs to be dropped as part of Phase 2, which would be very positive for EM. That is still likely months away but this shifting dynamic bears…
21 Oct 2019
Subdued Loan Activity, Low Rates Bring DFIs and Commercial Banks into Closer Competition in EM
With global loan volumes at their lowest levels since 2012 and persistently depressed global interest rates the prevailing norm, commercial banks operating in emerging markets are increasingly competing for deals with multilateral development finance institutions – the latest sign of how an abundance of liquidity is skewing markets and blurring the lines between financial market stakeholders.
18 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit. The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic. The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.…
14 Oct 2019
Exclusive: Eaton Vance Looks Beyond the Index
Most dedicated fixed-income investors have by now realized that emerging markets cannot be treated homogenously, and that blanket statements or generalizations about “emerging market debt” tend to be misleading, or even plain wrong. But with a total of 110 sovereign credits forming the investible EM universe, indexes represent less than half of all investible assets – which is why Eaton Vance, a…
8 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM got some traction last week as the dollar came under renewed pressure. However, the global backdrop remains negative for EM. US-China trade talks this week are unlikely to yield any progress, which means the next round of tariffs will go into effect mid-October. While odds of a Fed rate cut this month have risen, we do not think the positive liquidity story will outweigh the negative global…
7 Oct 2019