Ratings
Turkey’s post-downgrade US$1.5bn bond feat puzzles sceptics
Opinion is divided about the reasons behind Turkey’s recent success on the international debt markets, but questions remain over the country’s long-term investment potential.
18 Oct 2016
South African politics to make downgrade inevitable
The present state of South African politics will contribute to the country losing its investment grade rating. Although the markets have already priced in a sovereign downgrade to sub-investment grade, recent political events surrounding the country’s Minister of Finance are still causing volatility in South African bonds and the rand.
14 Oct 2016
Paraguay and Peru break trend as LatAm economies slow
In a region where slow or negative growth has been dominant for the past year, Paraguay and Peru have proven to buck the trend. As their economies’ growth again exceeds expectations for next year and with Paraguay now preparing to tap international bond markets, their Latin American neighbours ought to heed their successes to keep investors interested.
6 Oct 2016
Turkish corporates buck the downgrade trend
Moody’s post-coup downgrade of Turkey continues to hit the country, with a number of Turkish FIs having their ratings downgraded. The country’s corporates have weathered this storm, and the asset class has proved to be a strong performer with more entities likely to tap the markets in the medium term.
28 Sept 2016
Inflation, CB independence, junk downgrade leaves Turkey investor undeterred
Investors are still likely to lend to Turkey on its strong fundamental despite some funds being blocked by Moody’s recent rating downgrade, or budding concerns over inflation or institutional independence. Analysts suggest the downgrade was more politically-linked rather than a commentary on the country’s economic fundamentals, and forced outflows are unlikely to amount to much.
26 Sept 2016
Sukuk index debut positive, but more work is needed for further globalisation
In Q4 2016 a select few sukuk will be listed on JP Morgan’s EMBI. The inclusion of Islamic bonds is positive for the growth of the industry, and conventional investors will likely buy into such instruments following their inclusion. However, for wider acceptance amongst the international investor community, analysts suggest further global standardisation of sukuk will be necessary.
24 Aug 2016
Emerging Markets in a Post-Brexit World: It’s The Politics, Stupid
Emerging Markets have been buffeted by a variety of negative factors this year, but have remained resilient. The overriding factor here is that the global liquidity backdrop remains supportive for risk. We expect this favourable outlook to continue into year-end. Why?
24 Aug 2016
Despite ratings upgrades, Russian corporate bonds unlikely to move
Russian steel exporting corporates are demonstrating strong fundamentals, which not even EU tariffs are likely to impact. However the debt of these companies, similarly to that of the majority of the Russian corporate space, is already trading relatively tightly, so despite their appealing fundamentals, there are unlikely to be any major shifts in Russian corporate fixed income.
5 Aug 2016
Chile banking sector stable, but economic woes mount
Despite having its outlook downgraded recently, the Chilean banking sector remains relatively stable, particularly compared to others in the region. The country’s economy is also performing relatively well in comparison to its neighbours. There is still substantial foreign investment, although economic growth has slowed. Fears over a return to populist policies are likely overblown, at least…
27 Jul 2016
Selloff unlikely even if South Africa’s local debt junks
South Africa is likely to face a credit rating downgrade from one of the three main ratings agencies unless it begins to implement meaningful economic reforms. Despite concerns over its recent downgrade, the country’s local currency-denominated debt, held in significant amounts by foreign investors, would likely withstand a selloff in the event of a junk rating due to favourable index inclusion…
27 Jul 2016