Economics and Markets
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM should continue to benefit from the generalized improvement in the global backdrop. Trade tensions have eased whilst the risks of a hard Brexit have fallen, at least for now. Yet recent developments in some major EM countries underscores how important it is for investors to differentiate between the strong credits and the weak ones. For instance, South Africa, Hong Kong, Argentina, and Chile…
4 Nov 2019
Brazil: Focus of Debate on Public Spending Needs to Shift
There is often a lack of consensus among economists when it comes to public policy recommendations. While sowing confusion among the ordinary citizens, who cannot tell which side is “right”, this debate is an important element for the functioning of democracy and is healthy for public policy planning, argues Zeina Latif.
1 Nov 2019
Ashmore: Low EM Inflation - The Gift that Keeps on Giving
With the volume of negative-yielding developed market assets shooting past the USD15tn mark, inflation globally on the wane and downside risks for the Dollar rising, returns for EM fixed income investors are looking to be as strong as ever, argue Ashmore's Jan Dehn and Gustavo Medeiros.
31 Oct 2019
SBM Intel: “Nigeria is broke, but it’s not acting like it”
All is not well in the largest economy on the African continent. Nigeria faces an array of issues, largely the result of internal political problems. Bonds & Loans speaks with Cheta Nwanze, Head of Research at SBM Intelligence, about public debt, central bank independence, and growing political risk in Nigeria.
30 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM has been on a good run but this week will be a big test. Brexit uncertainty may finally end. Or it may not. A delay would be positive for EM, whilst a potential hard Brexit would be negative. The Fed meets Wednesday and key US data will be reported during the week, culminating with the jobs report Friday. The dollar has been on its back foot as September data have come in weaker than expected,…
28 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
We are beginning to become more constructive on EM. The main trigger for some optimism is the shifting US-China dynamic. In our view, the partial trade deal reveals weakness on the part of the US. Reports suggest China will begin pushing for all existing tariffs to be dropped as part of Phase 2, which would be very positive for EM. That is still likely months away but this shifting dynamic bears…
21 Oct 2019
Subdued Loan Activity, Low Rates Bring DFIs and Commercial Banks into Closer Competition in EM
With global loan volumes at their lowest levels since 2012 and persistently depressed global interest rates the prevailing norm, commercial banks operating in emerging markets are increasingly competing for deals with multilateral development finance institutions – the latest sign of how an abundance of liquidity is skewing markets and blurring the lines between financial market stakeholders.
18 Oct 2019
Assessing Saudi Arabia’s Investment Landscape: What Investors Really Think
Saudi Arabia’s economic prospects are on a positive trajectory, but a number of leading investors are of the view that the market is missing the mark when it comes appraising the Kingdom’s ability to achieve its fiscal consolidation objectives or tackle emerging headwinds. Whilst significant reforms have opened the country to greater FDI and boosted investor confidence, concerns regarding the…
16 Oct 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit. The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic. The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.…
14 Oct 2019
SWOT Analysis: African Credit Markets in 60 Seconds
Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats across Africa following a research trip to the region.
10 Oct 2019