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Managing political and economic risks: assessing the impact of macroeconomic headwinds and election outcomes on the investment landscape

Broadcast on Apr 5, 2022 from Livestream: Bonds & Loans Andes 2022 - Virtual Conference

Silver Sponsor

Bracewell

Silver Sponsor

Fitch Ratings

Bronze Sponsor

Robalino

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  • To what extent is inflation transitionary in the Andes relative to the rest of Latin America? What threat does inflation pose to the growth trajectory of the region?
  • Examining the impact of fiscal deficits and sovereign rating downgrades on the investment profile and bankability of projects
  • Assessing the impact of a rate rise on funding strategies, local currencies and bond pricing
  • What constitutional reforms are expected and how aggressive will they be? Will there be a reactivation of investment spending?
  • How supportive will left/central governments be to the private and commercial markets? How will they work together to finance the regions energy and infrastructure needs?
Andes

Moderator

Richard Francis

Richard Francis

Senior Director, Sovereigns

Fitch Ratings

Richard Francis

Richard Francis

Senior Director, Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings

Richard Francis is a member of the Latin America Team in the Sovereign Group at Fitch Ratings, based in New York. He is responsible for a number of the sovereign’s ratings in Latin America and participates in the research initiative on sovereigns rated by Fitch in Latin America. The lead sovereign analyst covering Colombia, El Salvador and Chile, among others, Richard is also a frequent spokesperson for the group on sovereign ratings.

Prior to joining Fitch in 2016, Richard was a Director for the sovereign group at Standard and Poor’s where he covered numerous countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Richard also worked at Morgan Stanley in the Latin American Economics Research Group.

Richard earned a BA in political science from Rice University and an MA in International Affairs from Columbia University.

Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings is a leading provider of credit ratings, commentary, and research. Dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, Fitch Ratings offers global perspectives shaped by strong local market experience and credit market expertise. The additional context, perspective, and insights we provide help investors to make important credit judgments with confidence.

Fitch Group is a global leader in financial information services with operations in more than 30 countries. Fitch Group is comprised of: Fitch Ratings, a global leader in credit ratings and research; Fitch Solutions, a leading provider of credit market data, analytical tools and risk services; Fitch Learning, a preeminent training and professional development firm; and Sustainable Fitch, the first global ESG Ratings solution for all asset classes at an entity and instrument level.

With dual headquarters in London and New York, Fitch Group is owned by Hearst.

For additional information, please visit fitchratings.com

LinkedIn Page: www.linkedin.com/company/fitch-ratings

Speakers

Ernesto Revilla Soriano

Ernesto Revilla Soriano

Managing Director, Head of Latin America Economics

Citi

Ernesto Revilla Soriano

Ernesto Revilla Soriano

Managing Director, Head of Latin America Economics at Citi

Ernesto Revilla is a Managing Director and Head of Latin America Economics at Citigroup. He joined Citi in 2015 as Mexico economist. Before, he had a 12-year career at Mexico’s Finance Ministry where he was Chief of the Tax Policy Unit, and from 2012 to 2015, Chief Economist. In that position, Revilla headed macroeconomic planning, coordinated Mexico’s National Development Plan from 2013 to 2018, served as advisor to the minister and participated in budget negotiations. Earlier, Revilla was an economist at the World Bank in Washington where he was a financial economist and later East-Asia economist. Revilla studied economics at the undergraduate level at ITAM in Mexico and at the graduate level at the University of Chicago. He has taught several courses in economics at both institutions and has published widely on economic topics.

Citi

Citi
Patrick Campbell

Patrick Campbell

Patrick Campbell

Portfolio Manager at Eaton Vance Management

Patrick Campbell is a vice president of Eaton Vance Management and a portfolio manager on Eaton Vance’s emerging markets team. He is responsible for buy and sell decisions, portfolio construction and risk management for the firm’s emerging markets strategies. He is also responsible for the analysis of macroeconomics, politics and financial markets of Latin America and the management of regional investments in various emerging markets portfolios. He began his career in the investment management industry with Eaton Vance in 2008. Patrick earned a B.A. from Boston College. He is a member of the CFA Society Boston and is a CFA charter holder.

Eaton Vance Management

Andrés Perez Morales

Andrés Perez Morales

Chief Economist, Chile and Colombia

Itau

Andrés Perez Morales

Andrés Perez Morales

Chief Economist, Chile and Colombia at Itau

Andrés is Chief Economist for Chile and Colombia at Banco Itaú since August 2021. Prior to joining Itaú, Andrés was the Head of Advisors and International Finance at the Ministry of Finance of Chile. In the past, Mr. Pérez worked at the Central Bank of Chile, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the World Bank, and the private sector. Mr. Pérez has an MBA, MPP, and a BA in Economics, all from the University of Chicago.

Itau

Itau
Cesar Arias

Cesar Arias

Cesar Arias

Director of Public Credit at Ministry of Finance & Public Credit, Colombia

Cesar Arias is the General Director of Public Credit and National Treasurer of the Ministry of Finance of Colombia since November 2018. He is responsible for the domestic and international funding strategies, risk management programs and treasury operations of the Republic of Colombia. Cesar sits in the board of several state-owned enterprises and represents the nation in several multilateral forums and financial markets.

From 2015-2018, Cesar was the Chief Economist for Latin America in the Global Economic Research and Emerging Markets Departments of Deutsche Bank in New York. In this role, he covered the seven the largest economies in the region and teamed up with strategists to formulate trading recommendations in fixed income, foreign exchange and credit markets.

Previously, César was a Director in the Latin American Sovereigns Group at Fitch Ratings. At the ratings agency, he was the lead analyst for Central American sovereigns (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Guatemala) and South American frontier markets (Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Suriname).

From 2008 to 2011, César worked as a Research Officer in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington DC. At the IMF, he conducted a stress test analysis of the Chinese commercial banks and supported technical assistance missions on debt management and capital markets development.

Previously, César served for five years as a Specialist in the Secretariat for Political Affairs at the Organization of American States in Washington DC, where he monitored ten presidential and legislative elections in Latin America.

César holds a Master of Public Administration from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University and a B.A. on Government and International Relations from the Externado University in Colombia.

Ministry of Finance & Public Credit, Colombia