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Oil-price, inflation, fiscal deficits and ratings: What does post-COVID economic recovery look like?

Broadcast on Sep 15, 2021 from Livestream: Bonds, Loans & Sukuk Middle East 2021

Platinum Sponsor

Emirates NBD

Platinum Sponsor

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB)

Gold & Networking Sponsor

Mashreqbank

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Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB)

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Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank

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BofA Securities

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GIB Capital

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SMBC

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Standard Chartered

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MUFG

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Citi

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Crédit Agricole CIB

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Intesa Sanpaolo

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Mauritius Commercial Bank (MCB)

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Moody's Investors Service

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Rawabi Holding

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White & Case

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SHUAA Capital

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Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP

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Arqaam

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Bank of Jordan

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Bank of Sharjah

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Barclays

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Capital Markets Malaysia

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DWF

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FIM Partners

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Finsight

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Fitch Ratings

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London Stock Exchange

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Maybank Islamic

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Morgan Lewis

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NetRoadshow

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S&P Global

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Squire Patton Boggs

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TMF Group

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UK Export Finance

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United Arab Bank

Supporting Partner

AlHuda CIBE

Supporting Partner

IsFin
  • Structural reforms, worse(ning) fiscal positions, rising debt/GDP ratios and cost of debt: How can governments deleverage whilst supporting their economies?
  • How are GCC governments diversifying their economies away from oil? What does the transition into these new economies look like?
  • Fed policy and US rates: What will be the impact?
  • Is inflation coming: Will Big Fiscal drive growth and/or inflation?
  • What is the new equilibrium price of oil? What is the economic impact to the region at the new price?
Middle East

Moderator

Alexander Perjéssy

Alexander Perjéssy

Vice President, Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group

Moody's Investors Service

Alexander Perjéssy

Alexander Perjéssy

Vice President, Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group at Moody's Investors Service

Alexander Perjéssy is Vice President – Senior Analyst at the Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group. Based in Dubai, he has lead analyst responsibilities for a number of sovereigns in the Middle East, including most of the Gulf Cooperation Council member states and several regional multilateral institutions.

Prior to joining Moody’s in November 2017, Alex worked for two years as senior economist at the Islamic Development Bank in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Before relocating to the Middle East, Alex spent more than 12 years covering macroeconomic developments and sovereign risk assessment in the emerging markets of the EMEA region for AllianceBernstein and The Rohatyn Group, both US-based asset management firms in New York, as well as for Goldman Sachs in London.

Alex holds an MA in Economics from the University of Maryland and a BA in Economics from Middlebury College.

Moody's Investors Service

Alexander Perjéssy

Moody's Investors Service is a leading provider of credit ratings, research, and risk analysis. Moody's commitment and expertise contributes to transparent and integrated financial markets, and the firm's ratings and analysis track debt covering approximately 130 sovereign nations, 11,000 corporate issuers, 21,000 public finance issuers, and 76,000 structured finance obligations.

Speakers

Cian O'Brien

Cian O'Brien

Cian O'Brien

Senior Investment Officer at Colchester Global Investors

Cian is a Senior Investment Officer at Colchester Global Investors and has been with the firm since 2013. Cian manages both developed and emerging market bond portfolios and conducts sovereign balance sheet research at the firm. He began his career in 2002 with the Central Bank of Ireland before moving into asset management with Bank of Ireland Asset Management. In 2011 he joined State Street Global Advisors (SSgA) in London where he was a senior portfolio manager on the active global fixed income team. Cian graduated from University College Cork with a degree in Commerce and German, before obtaining a Masters in Investment and Treasury from Dublin City University. He is a CFA charterholder and a member of the CFA Society of the UK.

Colchester Global Investors

Adi Rajguru

Adi Rajguru

Adi Rajguru

Head, Financing Solutions at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB)

Adi Rajguru is Head of Financing Solutions at ADCB. Adi has nearly twenty years of experience in banking, having previously worked at Nomura, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs in Dubai and London.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB)

Adi Rajguru

ADCB Group is a leading UAE banking group that provides over 1 million customers with a full suite of products and services, spanning Consumer Banking, Wholesale Banking, Treasury & Investments and Property Management. ADCB operates a network of 54 branches and over 428 ATMs across the UAE.

On 1 May 2019, ADCB and Union National Bank merged and the combined entity acquired Al Hilal Bank, which operates as a separate Islamic banking entity under its own brand within the Group. The transaction reinforced ADCB’s position as the third largest bank in the UAE by assets. As at 31 December 2020, the Group’s total assets stood at AED 411 billion.

ADCB Group, which is 60.2% owned by the Government of Abu Dhabi through the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, trades on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) under the ticker of ADCB. As at 31 December 2020, ADCB’s market capitalisation was AED 43 billion.

Khatija Haque

Khatija Haque

Chief Economist and Head of Research

Emirates NBD

Khatija Haque

Khatija Haque

Chief Economist and Head of Research at Emirates NBD

Chief Economist and Head of Research, Emirates NBD

Khatija Haque joined Emirates NBD in 2011 as one of the founding members of the Emirates NBD research team, helping to build the bank’s macroeconomic coverage on the GCC and wider MENA region over the last decade. She was appointed Chief Economist and Head of Research in 2020.

Khatija has more than 20 years’ experience as an Emerging Markets economist spanning three continents. Before moving to Dubai in 2008, Khatija was a Vice President at Deutsche Bank in London, covering several countries in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa. She is a frequent guest on local radio and television and is often quoted in both local and international press.

Emirates NBD

Khatija Haque

Emirates NBD (DFM: Emirates NBD) is a leading Banking Group in the MENAT region. As at 30th September 2020, total assets were AED 692 Billion (equivalent to approx. USD 188 Billion). The acquisition of DenizBank represents a significant milestone for Emirates NBD with the Bank expanding its presence to 13 countries, servicing over 14 million customers. The Bank is ranked among the top 20 in the Forbes’ list of the World’s Best Regarded Companies, securing a leading spot among global brands.

The Bank has a significant retail banking franchise in the UAE and is a key participant in the global digital banking industry with 94% of all financial transactions and requests conducted outside of its branches. Emirates NBD was named “UAE’s Best Bank” in 2020 for a fifth consecutive year by Euromoney. In addition, Emirates NBD received the “Excellence in Leadership in the Middle East” award, introduced this year in light of the Covid-19 impact, as a recognition of its efforts in responding to the Covid-19 crisis.

Emirates NBD is also a major player in the UAE corporate segment and has strong Islamic banking, investment banking, private banking, asset management, global markets & treasury and brokerage operations.

LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/emirates-nbd

Sharif Eid

Sharif Eid

Portfolio Manager, Global Sukuk and MENA Fixed Income

Franklin Templeton Investments

Sharif Eid

Sharif Eid

Portfolio Manager, Global Sukuk and MENA Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton Investments

Sharif Eid is a portfolio manager for Franklin Templeton Investments (Middle East) Limited. Mr. Eid joined the Global Sukuk and MENA Fixed Income investment team in April 2009 as a research analyst where he helped develop the group's fundamental research process and production. Mr. Eid was promoted to portfolio manager in 2011 and is currently the co-manager of the FTIF GCC Bond Fund and co-manager of Global Sukuk institutional accounts.

Prior to joining Franklin Templeton Investments (Middle East) Limited, formerly Algebra Capital, Mr. Eid worked for TD Securities in Toronto as a trader. He rotated through credit, FX and interest rate option desks.

Mr. Eid holds a bachelor's degree in industrial engineering and a master's degree in mathematical finance, both from the University of Toronto.

FTIML-Dubai is an active, research-driven, team-based manager which aims to achieve superior long-term investment performance against relevant benchmarks and to provide excellent, value-added client service through the Franklin, Templeton and Mutual Series investment groups. The fund management team performs bottom-up research to manage assets in private and public markets across all asset classes. Their services are packaged as fund solutions, discretionary mandates or structured products.

Franklin Templeton launched a dedicated bond fund aimed at capitalising on the growing debt market in the Gulf region which was supported by portfolio Sharif Eid.

Franklin Templeton Investments