Macro
Russia forays into bond markets as liquidity woes ease
Russia’s strengthening presence on the bond markets marks a gradual recovery, with banking sector liquidity woes premature, observers say.
10 Oct 2016
Middle East debt remains strong – still sees demand
Middle Eastern sovereign debt issuance is already at a record high for 2016, and total issuance for the year also seems likely to set a new record. Low oil prices have caused a re-pricing of risk in the region, and although some see no value in GCC debt – viewing issuances as ‘trophy deals’ others, particularly in Asia, are keen to pick up corporate and sovereign paper.
10 Oct 2016
Kazakhstan and Russia announce US$4bn deal on 25 projects
Russia and Kazakhstan have reached an agreement on bilateral strategic development which will see the two Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) members jointly invest around US$4bn in a number of economic projects. More deals worth around US$27bn are expected to be finalised at the inter-regional cooperation forum in Astana, but some are sceptical that either side is willing to commit to them fully.
5 Oct 2016
Colombian referendum “No” vote leaves investors on hold
Hopes of a long-awaited peace deal with the FARC rebel group were tarnished on Sunday as voters rejected the proposal brokered by Colombia’s president Juan Manuel Santos by a narrow margin. The referendum, which was widely tipped to go in Santos’s favour, will likely send shockwaves through the country’s financial markets and potentially undermine investment as Colombia prepares for major…
5 Oct 2016
Saudi Arabia set to replace oil with foreign investment
Hopes of a boost to oil prices seem to have faded despite reports that a preliminary agreement was reached by OPEC members to cut production last week. Saudi Arabia appears to be losing control over the market and is beginning to suffer from damage it initially planned to inflict on its competitors. All signs point towards an urgent need for Riyadh to diversify the economy – but has that train…
3 Oct 2016
Currency fluctuations could upset telco popularity
The capital intensive and competitive nature of the telecoms industry provides investors with plenty of choice – and the sector continues to attract the interest of the global investor community. However, local-currency cash flows and dollar-denominated technology means that such companies are exposed to a currency mismatch which could hurt investment on rate hikes or fluctuations.
3 Oct 2016
NPL-related systemic crisis in China unlikely, but fresh questions raised over solutions
Recent reports of non-performing loans (NPLs) in China exceeding official estimates by a factor of ten are widely overblown, analysts suggest. Nevertheless, with the country’s lenders looking squeezed, fresh questions have been raised about debt-to-equity swaps and pilot NPL securitisation programmes among other solutions being rolled out to combat the growing trend.
27 Sept 2016
Inflation, CB independence, junk downgrade leaves Turkey investor undeterred
Investors are still likely to lend to Turkey on its strong fundamental despite some funds being blocked by Moody’s recent rating downgrade, or budding concerns over inflation or institutional independence. Analysts suggest the downgrade was more politically-linked rather than a commentary on the country’s economic fundamentals, and forced outflows are unlikely to amount to much.
26 Sept 2016
Inflows to increase again, but EMs not out of the woods yet
A fall in EM inflows for September can be attributed to concerns over whether the US Fed would hike rates at its last policy meeting this week. With the Fed keeping rates on hold, inflows are likely to rise again, but the main drivers of the EM credit rally, such as a dovish Fed and positive Chinese economic performance are likely to change next year, meaning the 2017 outlook for EMs could be…
26 Sept 2016
Venezuela loses another lifeline
With the cutting of Chinese funding from Venezuela’s dwindling economic lifeline, the country edges closer to default. Nevertheless, China’s financial aid is likely to only go so far, and long awaited structural reforms are in need. A replacement of the current administration, if successful, would prove a boon for the country’s assets and would be welcomed by the international community, however…
14 Sept 2016