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Supply and Demand Shocks From COVID19 Could Push Global Economy into Recession

The markets might have priced in a 1H supply shock, but not 10-20% global infection rates, argue RenCap’s analysts, while Moody’s once again has lowered its global growth forecast for 2020.

9 Mar 2020

As Fear Takes Over, Markets Should Take Refuge in Buying Opportunities that Epidemics Create – William Blair

The last week of February saw markets end at levels not seen since May 2019 and some of the largest asset sell-offs in nearly 10 years. But while it’s always difficult to predict market behaviour, participants should gain some comfort from the fact that market reactions to previous epidemics have been relatively short-lived and generally create more buying opportunities, say emerging market debt…

6 Mar 2020

Ashmore: Chinese Bonds Deliver in Bear Markets

Chinese bonds tend to perform better than other EM local currency bonds during bouts of risk aversion, making them – perhaps in spite of, not despite, fears over the spread of coronavirus – a de facto safe haven, argues Ashmore's EM bond guru Jan Dehn.

5 Mar 2020

How Will EM Investing Evolve Over the Next Decade?

The past decade has seen a swathe of changes in emerging market investing. As data and technology becomes increasingly accessible, ESG grows in importance, and political developments shake up a number of markets and the balance of power worldwide, how will investing in EM change over the next decade?

4 Mar 2020

BBH: EM Preview for the Week Ahead

The corona virus news stream remains negative and that is likely to keep pressure on EM and other risk assets. Even the prospects of potential Fed easing are not enough to offset the growing headwinds to the global economy, as China reported much weaker than expected February PMI readings over the weekend.

2 Mar 2020

Risk of Oil Price Collapse ‘High’ as Russia Urges Caution on OPEC+ Action - Standard Chartered

Russia’s slowness to respond to a fall in demand for oil following the coronavirus outbreak could send oil prices plummeting to as low as USD30 per barrel, according to analysts at Standard Chartered Bank.

2 Mar 2020

Impact of Coronavirus Begins to Show in Economic Data

As the coronavirus continues to spread, with novel cases being reported in countries across the world almost daily, its impact is beginning to become evident in economic data.

28 Feb 2020

Fixed-Income Investors Look to Dump HY, Pile into Private Credit as Clouds Gather over Economy – Blackrock

More late cycle-related rebalancing is likely to take place in 2020 amid declining global rates and a whole host of destabilizing factors, including geopolitical uncertainty and economic “black swans”.

28 Feb 2020

Investors Should Look to Corporates as the ‘Core’ of Emerging Market Debt – Pinebridge

While the early years of emerging market investing for global asset managers was largely dominated by sovereign placements, which have since formed the core of the asset class, the index and liquidity environment we find ourselves in today should prompt a rethink, argue Pinebridge emerging market debt asset managers.

26 Feb 2020

The Growth of Private Credit in EM Risks Being Accompanied by Looser Underwriting Standards, Posing ESG Risks

While the outlook for private credit appears bright, the growth of the asset class – particularly in emerging markets – in combination with record-low global yields risks prompting some underwriters to loosen their underwritings and structuring standards as they rush to deploy capital and generate yield, Allianz Global Head of Private Debt Sebastian Schroff says.

25 Feb 2020

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