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There are many potential triggers or combination of triggers that investors monitor – increasingly now given where we are in the current cycle – to try to predict when the next recession will arrive. It is hard to pinpoint specific causes historically aside, perhaps, from catastrophic policy (fiscal or monetary) mistakes or unanticipated global economic shocks. The reality is that many of the potential triggers themselves are inter-related and can result from a recession rather than indicate that a recession is imminent.
Tim most recently served as global head of Debt Capital Markets at Credit Agricole CIB, and is also a former board member of Tungsten Bank Plc, a UK challenger bank acquired by Wyelands Bank Plc in December 2016. He has an MBA from The Wharton School and is a member of the CFA Society of New York and the CFA Society of the UK. He has over 30 years of experience in finance and banking.