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Investors are suddenly much more concerned about the political transition in Argentina, but default is by no means a certainty, argues Ashmore's Gustavo Medeiros, and opportunities abound.
The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ Emerging Markets (EM) countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time. This behaviour has been ubiquitous in past crises and the 2020 Coronavirus Crisis is no exception. EM countries have experienced indiscriminate outflows,…
Apr 24, 2020
Ashmore's Deputy Head of Research Gustavo Medeiros assesses the policy reactions in emerging and developed world to the COVID19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy, concluding that EMs - lead by a gradual recovery in China and intra-EM trade - will regain strength and resilience as the crisis subsides.
Mar 25, 2020
It is tough to beat the long-term risk-adjusted returns of Emerging Markets (EM) sovereign debt. The asset class has consistently delivered steady performance even during poor macroeconomic environments for EM economies. On a forward-looking basis, a simple quantitative analysis demonstrates investors receive six to ten times more spread over US Treasury than the actual default risk embedded in…
Feb 19, 2020