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Policy & Government

Do Current Valuations Compensate Investors for Increased Default Risk?

As COVID-19 and the ongoing oil price spat between Riyadh and Moscow continues to wreak havoc on markets across the world, the spreads on high yield assets in both EM and DM have widened significantly. With many companies seeing their revenues take a beating at countries go into lockdown, and with many sovereigns juggling their need for fiscal stimulus with already lopsided public finances, Iain…

23 Mar 2020

Ecuador, Other Frontier Sovereigns Could Follow Lebanon as Spreads Widen

Huge capital outflows from emerging and frontier markets and surging borrowing costs have put a number of sovereigns in the “high risk” zone, but IMF support can provide some consolation.

23 Mar 2020

As Flight to Safety Escalates, Fiscal Stimulus Prospects Vary Widely Across Emerging Markets

Total spread widening for the EMBI Global Index has reached a remarkable 286bp, according to ING, more than the 241bp monthly change seen at the peak of the 2008 crisis. Fiscal injections will be required across the board, but continued access to the debt capital markets will be instrumental for countries to pursue fiscal easing to soften the blow from the economic slowdown.

20 Mar 2020

Latin America’s Governments Rush Through Stimulus Measures to Counter Pandemic Impact

Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Colombia have announced urgent fiscal stimulus measures to compliment monetary policy moves introduced over the past two weeks to sooth markets after a huge spike in volatility.

20 Mar 2020

Central Bank of Kenya Likely to Cut Rates by 25-50bps – Sterling Capital

Ahead of the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Central Bank of Kenya on Monday 23rd March, Sterling Capital predicts a rate cut of 25-50bps.

20 Mar 2020

Saudi Banks’ Margins Squeezed by Fed Cut – Fitch

The US Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates by a further 50bp is placing additional pressure on the margins of Saudi Arabia’s banks, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings. Following the lead of the Fed, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) cut its repo rate on Monday by 50bp, bringing rates in the Kingdom to an all time low of 1%. But the Kingdom’s banks will feel the…

20 Mar 2020

Downgrade of South African Sovereign Now 'Probable' – Nedbank Analysts

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic collides with a crash in the oil price and a broader deceleration of growth, the South Africa sovereign looks set to struggle. According to Jones Gondo, Senior Credit Analyst and Nthulleng Mphahlele, Analyst at Nedbank, the risk of the big three rating agencies downgrading South Africa has been significantly heightened.

19 Mar 2020

GCC Countries Race to Introduce Stimulus Measures to Support Economy and Boost Lending

GCC countries led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates this week introduced a raft of stimulus measures to support businesses and the banking sector.

19 Mar 2020

Emerging Economies to see Boom in Off-Grid Renewables – Wood Mackenzie

Enormous strides have been made towards developing effective and affordable ways of generating power over the past decade, with technological innovation enhancing the viability of off-grid solutions. For emerging economies, a boom in off-grid energy will likely enhance access to swathes of the population, argues Wood Mackenzie. For state utilities, however, off-grid solutions could be…

18 Mar 2020

Debt Capital Markets Are Crucial to Success of Saudi Vision 2030, but Some Bankers Say it's Underutilised

Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s ambitious plan to transform the economy and diversify away from oil production, has seen the country develop the largest project pipeline in the region. But the government’s apparent reluctance to raise funds through the debt capital markets risks undermining Vision 2030, according senior investment bankers based in the region.

18 Mar 2020

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