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Policy & Government

Latin America 2020: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

Take a good look at Latin America’s 21 countries today, and one quickly concludes that this is not a region moving in unison but rather a patchwork of divergent political and economic motors firing at different speeds, taking each in different directions. Rarely has it been this challenging to analyze Latin America as a whole, so it seems appropriate to showcase Latin America’s differences…

11 Feb 2020

Prospect of Early Romanian Election Sparks ‘Benevolent’ Market Reaction – ING

A successful no-confidence motion against Romania’s government has raised the prospect of early elections and may usher in a period of political instability, but the market has reacted relatively well according to ING emerging market strategist Trieu Pham.

7 Feb 2020

Countries Must Protect ‘Natural Capital’ to Lower Sovereign Credit Risk – Grantham Research Institute

The London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment and think tank Planet Tracker have published a report exploring the link between a country’s sovereign bonds and its natural resources, outlining a new research framework intended to allow market participants to integrate these considerations into the credit analysis process.

7 Feb 2020

Ghana Raises USD3bn Across Three Tranches – Including SSA’s Longest-Dated Eurobond

Ghana raised USD3bn across 7, 15, and 41-year notes this week, the region’s longest-dated bond issuance to date and a major milestone for the country.

6 Feb 2020

Twin Deficits Leaves ZAR vulnerable – Standard Bank

Over the past week the rand has weakened as the global coronavirus outbreak causes markets to jitter. The rand is particularly vulnerable due to the country’s twin deficits – both current and fiscal – being run by the government, which “both compare poorly in the global context” according to a recent report by Standard Bank.

5 Feb 2020

India’s Budget Fails to Offer Expansionary Fiscal Stimulus

India’s Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, unveiled the 2020 Union Budget of India this week to a lukewarm reception, as it failed to offer the expansionary fiscal policy measures many believe necessary to kickstart the struggling economy.

5 Feb 2020

Lebanon to Pursue “Restructuring Without Restructuring”

While details of the government’s strategy to address the dire economic circumstances it faces are scant, analysts at Barclays believe Lebanon is likely to favour a bond swap with domestic banks over alternatives like issuing long-term FX certificates via the central bank, a move that could result in the sovereign entering Selective Default.

4 Feb 2020

Kenya’s Real Estate Sector Not Heading for a Bubble – Cytonn Investments

Despite a boom in Kenya’s real estate sector in recent years the market is not currently in a bubble, argues a recent report from Cytonn Investments. A bubble is unlikely, the report argues, due to a lack of access to credit, without which unsustainable demand cannot be supported.

31 Jan 2020

BlackRock Fixed Income CIO: Fed’s Policy Statement “Abnormally Normal”

Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income says that while the Fed’s apparent commitment to continued easing and expansion is reassuring, they may look to rein in some of the ‘plentiful’ liquidity pumped into financial markets in recent years.

30 Jan 2020

Kenya’s Rate Cap is Dead, but Private Credit Growth May Remain Elusive for Some Time

The introduction of the interest rate cap in 2016 was intended to enhance access to credit for retail customers and Kenya’s large SME sector. Instead, the effect was very much the opposite. But despite the recent repeal of the cap, the path back towards strong private sector credit growth may be more challenging than it may first appear.

30 Jan 2020

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