Economics and Markets
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data. While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region. Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.…
2 Dec 2019
Colombia: Latin America’s Shining Star Dims amid Tax Law Setback
As the wave of social unrest spreads across Andes, investors are becoming wary of risks surrounding Colombia. In late October, the government presented a revised tax reform proposal to Congress after the initial bill was overturned due to procedural failings. While the new proposal is expected to pass, questions remain over the fiscal impact of the reform – and what it means for the outlook in…
26 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM came under pressure last week as doubts rose whether the Phase One deal can be completed. Also, the dollar was able to get some traction against the majors as the eurozone, UK, and Japan all reported weaker than expected November PMI readings. Divergences in the growth outlook and interest rate differentials should remain in the dollar’s favor. Furthermore, the weaker global growth outlook…
25 Nov 2019
SWOT Analysis: Privatisation and Domestic Issuances Driving Markets in Brazil
Bonds & Loans examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the Brazilian market following a research trip to the region.
22 Nov 2019
Nigeria: Rising Policy Risk, Institutional Weakness Weighs on Economy
Nigeria’s recent attempt to retrospectively tax international oil companies was seen by many as an attempt to desperately plug gaps in the country’s budget. But the government’s strained relationship with the country’s largest revenue generating sector is merely a symptom of much deeper issues: patchy revenue generation, ineffective institutions, and rising policy risk.
20 Nov 2019
What to Expect from Argentina in 2020?
Argentina celebrated the first round of Presidential elections in late October. Investors largely characterized the vote as a kind of referendum between a continuation of market friendly economic reforms by incumbent Mauricio Macri or a comeback to a more interventionist approach by challenging Alberto Fernández, who was leading a Peronist coalition – but there is good reason to believe things…
19 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM FX was mostly weaker last week due to doubts about a Phase One trade deal between the US and China. Those talks continue this week and while we expect a deal to be struck, there is likely to be a lot of last minute posturing that will likely keep markets volatile over the short-run. In the meantime, investors need to beware of idiosyncratic country risk within EM.
18 Nov 2019
Brown Brothers Harriman: Emerging Markets Preview for the Week Ahead
EM was mostly lower last week, as doubts crept in about the recent trade optimism. Some events also served as reminders of idiosyncratic EM risk that can’t be overlooked, such as downgrade risks (South Africa), failed oil auctions (Brazil), and violent protests (CLP). EM may remain on its back foot until we get further clarity on the US-China talks, but we remain confident in our call that a deal…
11 Nov 2019
As Contempt for Experts and Data Rises with Populism, US Economic Data Gains Focus
The rise of populism has engulfed countries across both developed and emerging markets, placing renewed pressure on state institutions to stay independent – often in the face of overt harassment from strongmen leaders. In the US, whose economic data informs the decisions and forecasts of finance professionals worldwide, the President’s cavalier attitude to facts raises questions regarding the…
8 Nov 2019
Latin American Democratic Institutions Are Under Attack – Should Investors Worry?
October 2019 was a shockingly turbulent month for South America, but what does it mean for international investor sentiment about the region, asks John Price, Managing Director at Americas Market Intelligence.
5 Nov 2019