Economics and Markets
As Monetary Policy Reaches its Limits, Where Do Policymakers Go Next?
While the magnitude of the challenge facing monetary policy makers has escalated swiftly in recent weeks, the underlying setting – growth driven largely by cheap money, and overreliance on low rates – has been in place for some time, and many market observers have been asking the painful but necessary question: once central banks hit a wall of zero rates, where do we go from there?
31 Mar 2020
Policy Measures to Soften the Blow for Latin America as Pandemic Enters New Phase - Scotiabank
So far, data on the spread of COVID19 in Latin America suggests the worst is yet to come, and the full economic impact on growth will be significant. But the measures already taken – and those being prepared – by governments in the region should soften the blow, a Scotiabank report suggests.
30 Mar 2020
EM Telecoms During the Crisis: A Different Kind of Going Viral
When most other sectors face an unprecedented crisis, the telecoms industry could stand to benefit as demand for digital communciations soars on the back of requirements for self-isolation and quarantines across most of the world's nations, argues Manulife's Richard Segal, but the ability of telecoms to prosper in challenging times varies significantly from market to market.
27 Mar 2020
COVID-19 Could Restart US-China Trade Tensions – Control Risks
With the US likely to fall into a recession combined with widespread social disruption caused by the lockdown, Trump’s re-election this November appears uncertain. Far from soothing tensions between the US and China, the pandemic has heightened them.
27 Mar 2020
US Fed and Senate Double Whammy Response Lifts markets, EMs to Follow Suit
Promise of unlimited monetary stimulus and signs of a tentative USD2tn stimulus package in the US Senate offered some much-needed comfort to global markets, with EMs receiving an additional boost from their governments through promises of additional fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing.
26 Mar 2020
Kenyan Bond Yields Spike Due to Pandemic, Locust Disruption – Cytonn Investments
As the COVID-19 pandemic wracks emerging and developed economies alike, market have gone into overdrive with shares and bonds both suffering heavy sell-offs as investors flee to the safety of US dollars. Kenya’s local currency treasury bonds (TBs) and outstanding Eurobonds have been no exception to this trend.
26 Mar 2020
Latin American Borrowers Brace for Volatility, Draw Down Credit Lines
Mexico’s Televisa and Brazil’s Vale are the latest corporates to make use of any credit available to them in what is likely to be a slew of regional and emerging market borrowers looking to shift into capital conservation mode in a turbulent market.
26 Mar 2020
Ashmore: Assessing the EM Policy Reaction-Function in the Context of a COVID-19 Induced Recession
Ashmore's Deputy Head of Research Gustavo Medeiros assesses the policy reactions in emerging and developed world to the COVID19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy, concluding that EMs - lead by a gradual recovery in China and intra-EM trade - will regain strength and resilience as the crisis subsides.
25 Mar 2020
Emerging Market Corporate Defaults Unlikely to Reach 2008/9 Levels - Bank of Singapore
Investors concerned about a global financial crisis-style blowout in emerging market corporate spreads may be pleasantly surprised as a number of technical and fundamental factors leave the asset class in a much stronger position than was the case over a decade ago, according to Bank of Singapore analysts.
25 Mar 2020
UAE Bank to See Asset Quality Weaken – Fitch Ratings
The impact of the coronavirus is being felt by countries and sectors worldwide, but the UAE is particularly sensitive as key sectors like oil & gas and logistics feel the disruption more severely. For the country’s banking sector, the pandemic looks set to place additional pressure on banks’ credit profiles by reducing asset quality, according to a note from Fitch Ratings.
24 Mar 2020