EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked. EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend. Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL.
25 Jun 2018
EM FX was mixed on Friday but capped off a largely losing week. MYR, CLP, and CNY were the best performers over the last week, while ARS, TRY, and ZAR were the worst. We expect EM FX to continue weakening, but note that with very few fundamental drivers this week, we may see some consolidation near-term.
18 Jun 2018
By late 2017, to the surprise of naysayers, the Russian economy appeared to have successfully navigated a challenging sanctions-riddled period and by Q1 2018 was looking to be one of the better EM stories on the market. But the latest escalation in tensions with Washington, along with broader EM outflows, have seen the country’s issuance pipeline dry up even as economic fundamentals remain…
13 Jun 2018
EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.
11 Jun 2018
Disruptive new technologies such as cryptocurrencies and distributed-ledger technologies like blockchain are slowly penetrating the banking sector and debt capital markets, creating opportunities – and raising risks – for the traditional stakeholders.
8 Jun 2018
Turkey has been making headlines over the last six months, rarely for enviable reasons – a large current account deficit, low interest rates and wobbly fundamentals culminated in the lira becoming the second cheapest EM currency in mid-May. Following the snap elections called last month, Bonds & Loans headed to Istanbul to look beyond the headlines and get some perspective from issuers and…
30 May 2018
Following up on its recent “double bill” international bond, the former Soviet republic hit the market again at a tough time, but the notes proved popular with international investors and saw some of the highest oversubscription levels in the sovereign space over the past year.
29 May 2018
EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.
28 May 2018
As Turkey's Central Bank finally responds to the plight of Turkish lira with a 300bp overnight rate hike, Renaissance Capital's global chief economist Charlie Robertson looks back at how the country got itself into this pickle - and some of the possible solutions that could boost the economy.
24 May 2018
EM FX ended Friday on a weak note, and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.
21 May 2018